***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.5 14.9 13.0 -0.2 45.5 46.4 14.2 15.1 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.1 12.9 -0.1 47.8 48.2 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.2 13.1 -0.4 42.7 44.4 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.2 6.7 9.9 -0.8 35.3 39.1 6.6 7.7 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 14.4 14.8 11.0 -0.8 34.7 38.7 14.7 15.8 16.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 12.9 12.8 8.4 -1.4 25.0 32.5 13.4 14.6 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 15.3 14.9 12.9 -0.1 47.8 48.1 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 2.2 2.3 9.1 -1.2 29.7 35.6 2.5 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 14.3 14.7 11.7 -0.8 35.8 39.5 14.5 15.5 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 14.2 14.4 10.1 -1.0 32.4 37.3 14.5 15.5 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 14.2 14.4 10.9 -1.0 31.6 36.4 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 13.2 13.3 10.0 -1.2 29.3 35.1 13.6 14.7 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 14.2 14.3 9.9 -1.1 29.6 35.3 14.5 15.7 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.2 11.8 -0.5 41.2 43.4 14.8 15.6 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 14.0 14.5 11.4 -0.7 36.8 40.1 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 14.5 14.7 10.3 -1.1 30.7 36.0 14.9 16.0 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.3 12.7 0.0 49.1 49.1 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 13.9 14.3 9.7 -0.8 36.1 40.0 14.1 15.1 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.0 13.1 -0.2 46.9 47.4 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 8.6 9.2 7.3 -0.6 39.1 42.6 8.8 9.9 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 14.5 14.9 12.5 -0.6 38.4 41.2 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.1 12.8 -0.1 48.8 48.7 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.3 13.1 -0.3 44.9 46.0 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 14.4 14.9 11.6 -0.7 38.2 41.3 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.9 11.4 -0.5 41.6 43.6 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 13.5 13.6 9.2 -1.1 29.3 35.0 13.9 15.0 16.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.1 12.3 -0.2 45.6 46.6 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 14.0 14.4 10.4 -1.0 33.0 37.5 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.2 9.0 -0.7 38.4 41.8 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.0 13.0 -0.2 46.8 47.4 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------