***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 3.2 5.5 7.7 60.0 44.2 32.2 3.6 6.7 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 2.4 5.3 8.0 68.2 49.1 33.3 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.3 6.6 8.8 66.6 47.8 34.5 3.8 7.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.5 11.3 15.4 103.9 64.0 44.4 4.0 7.4 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.6 8.7 12.3 87.1 56.3 41.9 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.0 9.2 14.9 92.9 57.4 45.3 3.9 7.3 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 2.2 5.0 7.6 67.5 49.3 33.4 2.7 5.0 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 7.0 15.4 13.7 87.4 56.2 43.0 7.6 13.0 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.9 7.1 11.5 80.9 52.9 39.0 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 3.7 9.3 13.2 85.5 55.3 42.1 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.8 9.6 12.9 88.7 56.7 42.5 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 4.3 9.6 12.8 86.6 55.6 41.5 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 4.8 10.1 13.2 82.6 53.0 40.7 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 5.3 10.6 12.4 73.6 50.5 38.6 5.6 10.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.6 10.1 15.0 103.3 64.7 44.7 2.9 6.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.7 8.4 13.1 85.8 54.5 41.3 3.8 7.3 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 2.2 5.7 8.1 72.1 50.9 33.6 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 4.5 9.0 13.5 83.5 54.3 42.7 5.1 8.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 2.4 5.9 8.5 69.0 49.3 33.8 3.0 6.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.4 8.7 14.6 78.7 51.4 41.5 4.7 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.4 7.2 10.1 74.3 50.7 37.4 3.9 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 2.9 6.9 8.8 73.9 52.1 35.3 3.6 6.6 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 3.4 7.2 9.6 71.3 50.2 35.1 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.6 9.4 12.1 77.0 52.0 39.5 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.6 7.3 10.6 72.3 49.5 36.9 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.9 14.1 87.8 56.1 43.6 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 2.8 4.9 8.4 61.0 43.8 32.8 3.1 6.1 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.2 8.1 15.5 105.7 64.6 45.5 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.8 13.1 13.8 80.9 53.1 42.6 7.3 12.1 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 2.3 4.8 7.8 65.2 47.8 32.9 2.7 5.3 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------