***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.0 10.1 70.6 49.7 40.6 1.9 4.0 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.6 9.7 77.1 53.5 42.9 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.0 7.2 11.5 82.9 55.7 44.9 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.1 14.7 88.8 57.5 47.2 4.9 8.9 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.9 13.6 87.0 56.0 46.4 2.7 5.6 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.6 8.2 15.8 98.3 60.1 49.9 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.1 4.4 9.0 72.2 51.4 41.0 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.4 11.8 15.8 98.8 60.8 49.3 3.9 8.1 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.5 5.6 14.0 88.4 56.5 46.8 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.2 7.8 15.7 93.6 58.4 47.6 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.5 6.4 13.7 92.0 58.3 46.8 2.2 4.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.0 7.8 13.9 95.7 59.5 48.3 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.9 14.5 89.9 56.8 48.2 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.5 17.2 97.4 60.9 48.4 3.2 6.0 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.0 12.3 15.2 94.1 61.2 48.6 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.1 6.8 14.2 90.7 57.6 47.6 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.2 4.4 8.9 72.7 51.2 40.2 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 5.8 6.0 17.1 98.1 60.5 49.6 2.2 4.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.5 5.3 10.6 81.7 55.7 45.1 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.7 9.2 18.4 99.2 61.2 50.5 4.0 6.8 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.6 5.9 12.5 85.0 55.8 45.8 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.4 5.3 10.8 81.9 55.4 43.5 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.5 12.1 87.1 57.3 46.6 2.8 5.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.3 8.0 16.0 97.3 60.7 48.8 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.5 6.3 12.1 75.5 51.3 42.8 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.4 8.4 15.3 99.0 61.3 51.0 3.0 5.9 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.4 10.5 69.7 48.7 40.1 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.9 9.7 15.4 94.4 60.2 48.2 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 11.9 12.4 17.6 99.2 60.9 49.7 4.9 8.9 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.7 5.2 10.0 76.3 53.3 43.0 2.5 4.6 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------