***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 4.7 11.0 13.6 89.4 57.4 43.9 5.1 8.9 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.5 9.7 11.4 85.3 56.1 42.1 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 5.3 11.2 13.8 92.5 59.1 45.0 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.7 12.2 15.1 82.8 54.8 42.9 5.9 10.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.6 12.3 15.0 87.8 57.1 45.1 5.5 9.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.7 8.6 14.9 83.8 54.0 44.2 3.8 7.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.2 10.9 81.7 54.7 41.6 2.9 6.1 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.5 17.2 15.3 87.0 55.6 44.9 8.7 14.7 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.2 11.3 15.7 90.5 58.1 46.1 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.8 14.8 16.4 88.3 56.4 45.3 7.9 12.7 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.0 11.1 14.1 87.6 56.9 44.7 4.8 9.0 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.3 10.0 13.4 85.9 55.6 44.6 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.7 9.3 13.9 80.6 52.0 42.5 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.4 14.4 17.9 94.9 59.2 46.8 5.9 10.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.6 7.5 14.9 84.8 57.5 42.8 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 4.9 10.5 14.3 86.0 55.4 44.0 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.7 7.6 10.4 81.1 54.3 41.9 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.7 12.4 17.6 90.7 56.8 45.6 6.9 10.6 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.8 13.0 12.3 89.5 57.8 43.4 5.8 10.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.7 11.1 18.1 87.8 55.2 44.6 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.8 10.5 15.2 95.8 60.4 46.9 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.6 10.5 11.8 86.5 56.7 43.4 4.8 8.6 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.2 12.1 13.7 94.4 60.0 45.4 5.2 9.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.9 11.9 16.3 91.9 58.2 45.9 5.9 9.6 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.7 11.4 15.6 89.9 57.6 45.1 5.6 9.4 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.5 8.4 12.7 75.8 50.5 41.4 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 4.8 11.2 14.1 88.6 56.9 43.9 4.7 9.0 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 4.3 10.3 15.0 84.2 55.9 42.9 4.7 8.5 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.2 16.8 17.9 91.2 56.7 45.5 9.3 14.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.8 8.5 12.1 86.7 56.7 42.1 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------