***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 22.0 21.5 35.3 67.7 32.1 32.3 21.9 31.5 42.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 20.0 22.4 32.3 69.6 34.6 34.6 21.3 31.1 42.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 26.5 30.8 38.5 74.8 38.3 37.0 27.6 38.6 51.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 37.6 44.4 50.9 82.7 43.2 41.3 39.2 48.2 57.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 33.3 38.1 46.4 80.1 39.6 38.6 34.7 43.3 52.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 27.6 31.4 51.6 83.3 39.8 40.2 27.7 37.3 48.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 17.3 18.3 30.7 66.7 32.2 32.7 18.7 27.7 38.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 51.8 61.4 53.5 86.7 43.7 41.8 52.9 66.4 81.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 29.0 33.6 46.8 80.5 39.4 38.3 30.6 38.7 47.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 37.1 44.4 53.8 85.6 42.7 41.0 38.5 48.6 59.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 31.8 37.6 47.1 83.0 41.6 40.0 33.0 42.4 52.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 32.2 37.7 46.5 83.1 41.2 40.3 32.9 43.1 54.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 33.2 35.6 47.7 77.8 35.3 37.0 34.2 43.5 53.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 39.1 47.4 55.4 84.8 44.3 42.3 40.2 51.1 62.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 29.2 38.0 49.7 84.6 47.1 43.9 29.4 39.7 51.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 27.7 31.2 46.9 79.6 37.9 38.2 28.7 37.7 47.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 19.1 21.1 30.6 68.0 33.3 33.6 21.0 29.9 40.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 30.7 36.5 57.3 87.4 44.4 42.2 31.3 39.2 48.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 24.6 28.3 35.1 73.0 37.2 36.7 25.7 36.7 49.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 49.5 40.8 61.2 85.3 42.5 41.0 35.7 44.8 54.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 26.9 30.9 42.6 78.3 39.3 37.5 27.6 36.4 46.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 24.1 27.3 34.9 73.2 37.2 36.8 25.2 34.2 44.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 25.1 30.6 39.9 77.8 40.9 39.5 26.3 35.8 46.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 32.3 40.9 51.7 84.7 43.8 41.4 34.2 45.1 56.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 31.1 32.3 42.8 72.4 34.4 34.6 31.7 39.2 47.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 42.2 28.8 47.2 79.6 37.7 38.8 26.1 36.3 47.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 25.7 25.4 37.1 67.4 30.6 31.4 26.5 35.6 45.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 29.8 36.7 51.6 86.0 46.0 43.3 30.7 38.6 46.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 49.5 58.6 58.5 87.0 44.0 41.7 50.2 63.6 77.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 18.4 20.0 33.3 69.5 34.5 34.4 19.2 28.9 40.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------