***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 6.4 5.3 0.4 56.4 54.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.6 5.2 0.5 58.2 55.9 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.1 5.0 0.5 57.5 55.9 6.6 7.6 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.1 2.2 2.7 0.5 58.4 56.9 0.5 1.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.3 2.8 0.5 57.6 56.3 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 3.2 3.4 1.1 0.6 59.3 57.8 1.8 2.8 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.7 5.2 0.5 58.0 55.7 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -1.7 -1.6 1.3 0.4 56.4 56.5 -3.1 -2.0 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.3 3.3 0.4 56.8 55.8 3.9 4.9 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.3 1.9 0.4 56.7 56.3 4.0 5.0 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 4.9 5.0 2.4 0.5 57.6 56.6 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 3.6 3.6 2.0 0.4 57.0 56.4 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 4.2 4.4 1.6 0.5 58.6 57.1 2.8 3.9 4.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.8 3.3 0.3 54.4 54.3 4.6 5.5 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.5 3.2 0.5 58.9 57.6 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.8 2.0 0.5 58.5 57.1 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.6 4.9 0.4 56.0 54.1 4.5 5.3 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 2.7 2.7 1.3 0.4 55.9 56.0 1.6 2.4 3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.6 5.1 0.5 58.7 56.5 4.1 5.1 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 0.4 0.4 -0.5 0.4 55.8 56.4 -0.9 0.1 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.1 4.3 0.4 56.3 55.1 3.7 4.8 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 4.8 4.8 4.9 0.4 55.9 54.3 3.6 4.5 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 4.9 5.1 4.8 0.5 59.0 57.0 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 5.2 5.2 3.1 0.4 56.1 55.6 3.9 4.8 5.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.3 3.5 0.4 56.2 54.5 4.0 5.0 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.4 1.7 0.4 56.7 55.7 2.9 4.0 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.2 4.5 0.4 56.0 54.3 4.4 5.7 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.6 3.0 0.6 59.4 58.0 1.9 3.0 4.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 2.6 2.6 0.6 0.4 55.7 55.9 1.2 2.3 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.0 5.3 0.5 58.3 56.1 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------