***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 5.7 6.0 -0.4 44.6 45.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.1 5.3 6.0 -0.2 46.1 47.0 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.2 7.4 5.8 -0.3 46.0 46.5 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.3 1.5 3.5 -0.2 46.9 46.8 0.3 1.7 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.4 4.5 3.5 -0.3 45.7 46.0 3.7 4.7 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.1 3.5 1.7 -0.1 47.9 47.9 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.4 5.5 6.0 -0.3 45.8 46.8 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -3.5 -2.3 1.8 -0.4 42.8 44.6 -3.0 -1.7 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.2 5.1 4.0 -0.3 44.8 45.6 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.3 5.1 2.4 -0.4 42.9 44.8 4.5 5.4 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.1 5.0 3.0 -0.3 44.5 45.4 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.5 3.5 2.6 -0.3 43.6 44.8 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.4 4.7 2.2 -0.2 46.4 46.5 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.8 5.7 4.1 -0.4 44.1 45.5 5.1 6.0 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.1 6.1 4.1 -0.1 48.0 47.9 5.2 6.2 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.7 5.7 2.7 -0.2 45.9 46.2 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.6 5.5 5.8 -0.4 44.4 46.2 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 2.3 3.1 1.8 -0.4 43.5 45.7 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.1 5.3 5.9 -0.2 46.6 47.4 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.4 0.6 0.2 -0.3 45.5 46.8 -0.2 0.9 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.1 5.1 5.1 -0.3 44.6 45.3 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.1 4.9 5.7 -0.3 44.5 46.4 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.0 5.0 5.5 -0.2 47.4 48.0 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.0 3.8 -0.3 44.5 46.0 4.4 5.3 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.4 4.4 -0.3 46.0 46.2 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.5 4.4 2.5 -0.2 46.5 46.4 3.6 4.6 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.4 5.8 5.3 -0.3 45.3 45.8 4.8 6.2 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.0 4.1 3.8 -0.2 46.9 47.0 3.2 4.3 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 0.9 2.0 1.3 -0.3 44.7 46.9 1.2 2.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.5 5.7 6.1 -0.2 46.1 46.8 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------