***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 9999.0 17.2 16.3 4.7 92.2 88.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 15.6 18.5 16.2 4.7 92.2 88.7 10.7 12.6 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 16.3 19.6 16.8 5.1 92.7 89.1 11.0 13.0 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 8.9 12.4 14.4 5.2 90.8 87.9 2.4 4.9 7.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 16.6 20.0 15.6 5.4 91.8 88.7 10.7 13.0 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 15.5 18.7 13.3 5.2 90.7 87.6 9.5 11.8 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 15.2 17.9 15.8 4.4 91.3 87.7 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 4.9 8.6 14.4 5.9 93.1 89.9 -0.8 1.4 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 16.4 19.8 16.7 5.5 92.3 89.0 10.6 12.8 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 16.4 20.2 15.4 5.8 92.7 89.5 10.4 12.7 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 16.5 20.0 15.6 5.6 91.9 88.9 10.6 12.8 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 15.8 19.7 14.9 5.7 92.7 89.6 9.6 12.0 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 16.5 20.0 14.6 5.3 92.0 88.9 10.6 12.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 16.6 20.3 16.7 5.8 93.7 90.4 11.2 13.2 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 16.3 19.5 15.7 4.9 90.1 87.2 10.2 12.6 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 17.1 20.5 15.0 5.3 91.5 88.5 11.1 13.3 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 14.5 16.9 15.5 4.4 91.0 87.5 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 16.0 20.1 14.9 6.1 94.0 90.8 10.1 12.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 15.8 18.9 16.6 4.9 92.9 89.5 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 11.1 16.0 12.6 6.2 95.4 91.9 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 16.4 19.6 16.9 5.2 92.0 88.5 10.8 12.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 15.7 18.5 16.1 4.7 92.3 88.9 10.9 12.7 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 16.3 19.7 17.0 5.3 93.5 90.1 11.2 13.1 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 16.3 20.0 16.4 5.8 93.4 90.0 10.8 12.9 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 16.0 19.0 15.1 4.7 91.0 87.7 10.6 12.7 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 16.0 20.0 13.7 5.3 92.9 89.7 10.0 12.3 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 15.9 18.8 15.5 4.5 91.1 87.6 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 16.9 20.3 15.2 5.2 90.4 87.6 10.4 12.9 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 11.0 15.9 14.2 6.4 95.4 92.1 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 15.6 18.7 16.4 4.8 92.5 88.9 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------