***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 16.5 14.8 1.8 70.0 66.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 16.3 16.6 14.7 1.8 70.0 66.2 13.5 14.9 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 16.8 17.0 14.8 1.7 68.5 64.7 14.0 15.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 8.8 8.9 13.1 1.8 68.7 65.7 5.8 7.3 8.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 17.1 17.1 13.3 1.7 67.7 64.4 14.0 15.6 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 16.3 16.6 11.6 2.1 70.7 67.0 12.9 14.5 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 16.1 16.3 14.6 1.9 70.6 66.6 13.4 14.7 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 5.0 5.1 11.8 1.8 68.4 65.0 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 16.9 16.9 13.7 1.6 66.9 63.4 13.9 15.4 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 17.0 17.0 12.5 1.7 67.0 63.6 13.9 15.4 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 17.0 17.1 12.9 1.8 68.3 64.9 13.9 15.4 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 16.4 16.5 12.7 1.8 69.0 65.5 13.0 14.7 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 17.5 17.7 12.2 2.0 70.1 66.4 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 17.3 17.1 13.5 1.6 65.6 62.5 14.2 15.7 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 16.1 16.3 13.5 1.9 70.2 67.2 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 17.7 17.8 12.7 1.9 69.4 65.9 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 15.1 15.3 14.4 1.8 69.6 66.0 12.6 13.9 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 16.7 16.6 11.9 1.7 66.7 63.2 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 16.4 16.6 14.8 1.8 69.2 65.5 13.6 15.0 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.8 9.8 2.1 70.4 66.4 8.3 9.8 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 16.8 16.9 14.3 1.7 67.6 64.0 13.9 15.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.4 16.4 14.4 1.7 68.1 64.9 13.4 14.9 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 16.8 16.9 14.7 1.7 67.9 64.3 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 17.2 17.0 13.4 1.6 66.3 62.8 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 16.2 16.4 13.3 1.8 69.0 65.6 13.7 15.0 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 16.8 17.0 11.9 2.0 71.0 67.5 13.5 15.1 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 16.6 16.8 14.1 1.8 69.9 66.0 13.8 15.1 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 16.5 16.7 13.3 1.9 69.1 66.1 13.6 15.1 16.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 11.7 11.7 11.0 1.9 68.1 64.3 8.3 9.9 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 16.2 16.4 14.8 1.8 70.1 66.1 13.5 14.8 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------