***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 16.8 14.5 -0.1 48.3 49.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.2 14.5 -0.1 48.8 50.5 16.1 17.3 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.2 14.6 -0.3 46.7 49.0 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.1 12.6 -0.4 46.0 48.1 7.9 9.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 18.3 17.2 12.8 -0.5 44.9 47.3 16.1 17.6 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 16.8 15.9 11.1 -0.3 46.9 48.1 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 17.5 17.1 14.5 0.0 49.6 50.9 15.9 17.1 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.4 11.3 -0.5 44.5 46.9 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.8 13.3 -0.5 44.5 47.0 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.7 12.1 -0.6 43.7 46.4 15.7 17.3 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 18.0 16.8 12.5 -0.5 44.7 47.1 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.9 15.9 12.2 -0.5 45.1 47.3 14.7 16.3 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 17.8 16.8 11.7 -0.4 46.0 47.8 15.6 17.2 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.0 16.7 13.0 -0.7 41.7 45.8 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 17.3 16.7 12.9 -0.2 48.1 49.8 15.4 16.8 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 18.3 17.2 12.2 -0.4 45.5 47.5 16.0 17.6 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.3 14.2 -0.1 48.2 49.9 15.4 16.4 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 15.3 16.3 11.3 -0.7 42.7 45.9 15.5 16.9 18.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.0 14.5 -0.2 47.7 49.8 15.9 17.1 18.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.0 9.0 -0.5 44.8 47.3 10.0 11.4 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.1 14.0 -0.4 45.4 47.8 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 17.6 16.9 14.2 -0.3 46.2 48.7 16.0 17.2 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.1 14.3 -0.4 45.5 48.4 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 18.0 16.8 13.0 -0.7 42.9 46.2 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.0 13.0 -0.3 46.5 48.5 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 16.9 16.2 11.5 -0.2 47.5 48.9 14.8 16.4 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.3 13.8 -0.2 47.8 49.4 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 17.6 16.6 12.8 -0.3 46.3 48.4 15.3 17.0 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.8 11.0 10.3 -0.7 43.1 46.3 10.1 11.5 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.1 14.6 -0.1 48.9 50.6 16.0 17.2 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------