***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 15.5 16.0 -0.6 41.8 43.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 14.5 15.8 15.9 -0.6 42.2 44.3 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 14.7 16.0 16.1 -0.7 40.8 42.9 15.3 16.8 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 7.2 8.7 14.2 -0.8 39.9 41.5 7.9 9.8 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 15.0 16.4 14.4 -0.9 39.4 41.3 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 13.9 15.5 12.6 -0.9 40.2 41.8 14.7 16.6 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 14.4 15.7 15.9 -0.6 42.0 44.1 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 2.7 4.1 13.0 -0.9 39.4 42.0 3.4 5.1 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 14.6 15.9 14.9 -0.9 39.2 41.2 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 14.6 15.9 13.7 -1.0 38.6 41.3 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 14.9 16.3 14.1 -0.9 39.4 41.5 15.6 17.3 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 13.9 15.4 13.8 -0.9 39.7 42.0 14.7 16.5 18.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 14.9 16.5 13.3 -0.9 39.7 41.7 15.7 17.5 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 14.4 15.5 14.7 -1.0 38.0 41.6 15.0 16.5 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 15.3 16.6 14.4 -0.7 41.0 42.4 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 15.2 16.7 13.8 -0.9 39.4 41.5 16.0 17.8 19.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 13.8 15.1 15.6 -0.6 41.7 44.1 14.4 15.7 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 14.0 15.3 13.1 -1.1 38.1 41.2 14.8 16.4 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 14.3 15.6 16.0 -0.6 41.7 44.0 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 9.0 10.5 10.8 -0.9 40.1 42.9 9.8 11.4 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 14.8 16.1 15.5 -0.8 39.8 41.8 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 14.4 15.6 15.7 -0.7 41.0 43.8 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 14.5 15.8 15.9 -0.8 40.3 43.0 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 14.3 15.5 14.6 -1.0 38.3 41.3 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 14.9 16.1 14.5 -0.7 40.3 42.0 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 14.3 16.0 13.1 -0.7 41.9 43.1 15.1 16.8 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 14.9 16.1 15.2 -0.7 40.9 42.7 15.4 16.8 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 15.2 16.5 14.3 -0.8 39.9 41.6 15.8 17.5 19.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 8.9 10.2 12.1 -1.0 38.6 41.8 9.7 11.3 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 14.5 15.8 16.1 -0.6 42.2 44.1 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------