***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 16.3 15.4 1.4 74.6 70.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 16.3 16.6 15.3 1.5 75.1 70.4 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 16.8 17.0 15.6 1.4 74.1 69.7 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 9.2 9.6 13.6 1.5 73.6 69.7 6.7 7.9 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 17.1 17.4 14.0 1.5 73.2 69.3 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 16.1 16.5 12.2 1.5 73.8 69.9 13.6 14.8 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 16.0 16.3 15.2 1.4 74.6 69.9 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 5.0 5.3 12.6 1.6 74.2 70.2 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 16.7 16.9 14.6 1.4 72.8 68.9 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 16.8 17.0 13.4 1.5 72.8 69.0 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 17.0 17.3 13.8 1.5 73.7 69.8 14.7 15.7 16.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 16.3 16.6 13.4 1.6 74.4 70.5 13.7 14.8 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 17.1 17.4 13.0 1.5 73.8 69.8 14.7 15.8 16.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 16.8 16.9 14.5 1.4 72.0 68.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 16.4 16.8 14.1 1.5 74.6 70.3 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 17.4 17.8 13.4 1.5 73.5 69.7 15.0 16.2 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 15.3 15.5 14.9 1.4 73.6 69.2 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 16.4 16.5 12.8 1.5 72.9 68.9 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 16.3 16.6 15.5 1.5 75.0 70.4 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 11.5 11.8 10.5 1.7 76.0 71.3 8.9 10.0 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 16.8 17.0 15.2 1.4 73.1 69.1 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 16.2 16.4 15.1 1.4 73.3 69.2 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 16.7 16.9 15.5 1.5 74.0 69.6 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 16.7 16.8 14.4 1.4 72.4 68.4 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.7 14.0 1.4 73.0 68.9 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 16.6 17.0 12.5 1.6 76.4 71.9 14.0 15.1 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 16.6 16.8 14.6 1.4 73.2 69.0 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 16.8 17.1 13.9 1.5 73.7 69.8 14.6 15.6 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 11.4 11.6 11.9 1.6 74.7 70.1 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 16.3 16.6 15.5 1.5 75.3 70.6 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------