***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 9999.0 0.2 4.3 31.0 25.2 23.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 1.9 1.7 4.3 33.1 23.3 21.2 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 2.8 1.9 4.0 28.8 22.3 20.8 3.6 7.5 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 3.5 2.8 3.8 23.7 17.7 16.5 5.0 7.8 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 3.0 2.0 3.9 24.2 15.7 15.3 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 91 9 0 100 1.5 0.7 3.7 22.5 11.8 12.2 3.1 6.0 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 1.5 1.4 4.4 34.1 24.0 21.5 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 90 10 0 100 5.6 4.1 4.6 26.8 14.4 14.5 9.2 14.8 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 3.1 2.1 4.2 27.0 17.4 16.8 4.4 7.7 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 3.4 2.2 4.8 27.8 15.8 15.7 5.6 9.9 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 3.2 2.0 3.6 23.5 14.1 13.9 5.2 9.2 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 2.3 1.5 3.8 25.0 15.4 14.9 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 2.5 1.6 3.7 23.7 13.2 13.6 4.5 7.8 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 4.1 3.5 5.2 30.8 21.2 20.0 5.8 9.6 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 90 10 0 100 1.3 1.1 3.2 21.7 19.8 17.0 2.8 6.4 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 1.9 1.2 3.4 22.2 13.6 13.3 3.7 6.7 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 2.2 2.2 4.5 37.0 26.2 22.9 3.1 5.7 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 2.8 2.1 5.6 30.2 17.7 16.9 4.5 7.9 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 1.8 1.2 4.1 31.0 21.7 20.3 2.7 6.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 3.0 2.1 6.0 28.8 15.0 14.9 5.1 8.7 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 3.1 2.4 4.0 26.6 20.1 18.6 4.2 7.1 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 2.5 2.4 4.5 35.5 26.2 22.8 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 2.0 1.2 4.1 28.4 19.8 19.0 2.6 5.5 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 4.1 3.3 5.0 29.8 19.6 18.5 6.0 10.6 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 2.2 1.7 4.8 29.0 21.8 20.3 3.1 5.8 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 2.0 1.0 3.3 21.3 12.1 12.4 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 2.2 2.0 5.2 33.2 25.3 23.2 2.8 5.3 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 1.1 0.8 3.4 22.4 17.5 15.7 2.2 4.8 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 5.1 4.0 6.0 30.8 17.7 16.8 8.3 14.5 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 1.7 1.3 4.2 31.7 23.2 21.3 2.4 5.4 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------