***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 4.9 10.4 88.4 59.1 43.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 3.1 8.8 11.2 97.9 62.2 44.0 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.2 10.7 88.5 59.6 45.1 3.3 6.7 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.9 14.3 13.2 100.4 63.9 47.7 5.7 9.7 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.1 12.8 96.3 61.9 46.0 3.3 6.3 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.5 12.8 17.8 114.6 67.8 56.0 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 2.1 7.6 10.8 96.7 62.1 44.1 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.4 18.6 14.4 107.4 65.7 52.2 6.8 11.9 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.3 12.5 94.4 61.4 45.8 2.9 6.2 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.2 12.2 14.0 98.4 62.5 49.1 4.2 8.1 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.5 11.7 12.3 100.2 63.2 48.8 3.9 7.7 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.1 13.9 13.1 111.5 67.1 52.0 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.4 15.4 15.3 115.1 68.3 54.5 5.4 9.4 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.0 16.9 14.2 95.2 61.8 50.0 6.4 11.9 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.1 11.3 12.2 92.6 61.2 44.8 3.8 7.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.9 11.7 13.8 106.8 65.5 51.2 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 2.9 10.0 10.8 101.6 63.7 44.4 3.2 6.3 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 10.1 15.7 95.7 61.2 50.3 4.3 7.3 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.3 9.8 11.1 96.0 61.7 44.7 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.5 12.8 18.5 104.8 64.9 54.4 4.4 8.1 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.2 11.2 91.7 60.9 45.1 3.5 7.0 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.6 10.5 11.1 101.8 64.1 45.7 3.9 6.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 4.2 10.7 11.3 91.8 60.6 45.9 4.4 7.8 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.4 12.0 13.4 89.9 59.8 48.0 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.8 11.4 13.1 96.4 62.0 47.1 4.4 8.0 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.5 12.0 14.5 116.0 68.4 53.2 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.6 9.4 12.1 92.3 60.5 45.6 3.2 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.5 9.7 12.6 96.2 62.4 46.3 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.2 16.8 16.8 98.8 62.6 52.1 6.2 11.4 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.7 7.8 10.9 93.8 60.8 43.9 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------