***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 16.0 10.9 121.5 70.3 50.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.3 17.3 11.2 134.5 73.9 53.7 4.1 8.0 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.2 19.4 12.0 143.2 76.1 53.3 5.2 9.1 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 10.1 22.9 13.6 122.5 70.5 51.9 10.2 15.0 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 7.6 22.1 13.6 130.2 72.7 53.5 7.3 12.1 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.2 16.0 16.6 121.0 69.9 56.0 4.8 8.7 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.6 13.8 10.9 125.8 71.5 53.3 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.9 29.5 15.5 128.3 72.2 56.8 11.6 18.0 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 6.0 20.1 13.8 139.8 75.4 54.2 5.9 10.2 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.6 25.8 15.8 138.6 75.0 56.4 9.3 14.5 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.9 20.3 13.2 128.8 72.4 54.9 6.2 10.8 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.7 18.1 13.0 121.6 70.4 55.6 5.3 9.7 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.8 18.1 14.2 115.3 68.2 54.9 6.3 10.9 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.6 27.9 15.3 145.2 76.7 55.1 8.3 13.8 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.4 16.1 13.0 123.4 70.9 51.1 4.5 8.6 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.4 18.2 13.6 123.3 70.7 54.9 6.9 11.1 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.9 13.8 10.7 124.5 71.1 52.4 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.1 22.3 17.7 145.4 76.8 57.3 8.8 12.9 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 5.4 23.5 11.4 141.5 75.7 54.0 5.4 10.2 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.4 19.3 19.4 131.2 72.9 57.5 6.6 10.8 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 5.4 17.5 12.2 135.9 74.3 52.4 5.5 9.2 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.7 16.8 10.7 123.9 70.8 52.0 4.5 8.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 6.2 22.8 12.0 149.5 77.6 54.7 6.1 10.6 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.4 23.2 15.3 151.9 78.3 56.0 7.3 11.6 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 5.1 15.5 12.9 115.0 68.1 50.1 5.5 9.4 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.9 16.4 13.1 113.3 67.5 55.2 6.4 10.6 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.7 16.2 12.1 114.4 68.0 50.3 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.3 19.2 13.6 126.6 71.8 52.5 5.6 10.0 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.7 30.6 18.4 142.4 76.1 57.4 11.5 17.3 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.1 16.1 11.3 135.0 74.0 53.4 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------