***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 35.4 40.4 84.8 45.6 41.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 20.5 31.4 40.1 88.0 47.3 42.7 22.8 33.1 45.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 27.8 40.2 42.5 89.8 49.4 43.5 29.4 40.6 53.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 41.0 51.2 49.4 90.7 50.1 43.4 42.7 51.2 60.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 35.7 46.3 49.1 91.9 50.6 44.0 37.7 45.9 54.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 28.3 38.6 58.0 93.4 49.7 45.4 29.0 38.9 49.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 17.5 26.0 39.4 85.6 44.6 41.2 19.8 29.2 40.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 54.0 70.3 54.4 94.4 50.8 45.2 56.7 69.6 83.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 30.9 41.3 49.2 93.5 51.9 44.9 32.4 40.3 48.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 38.8 51.9 55.1 94.8 51.5 45.3 41.1 51.1 61.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 33.7 45.7 47.1 93.0 51.0 45.0 35.7 45.1 55.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 34.3 45.9 47.4 94.0 51.3 45.7 35.4 45.1 55.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 37.1 46.7 52.0 92.8 49.7 45.1 38.2 46.9 56.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 40.8 55.3 54.7 94.3 52.5 46.0 42.2 53.5 65.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 29.4 40.7 45.0 85.9 47.2 41.4 31.8 42.7 55.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 30.3 40.9 49.4 93.2 50.9 45.4 31.6 40.4 50.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 20.6 29.8 38.4 86.8 46.2 42.1 22.6 32.0 43.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 31.7 42.5 62.4 96.6 52.9 46.4 33.1 41.1 49.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 25.2 37.8 40.6 88.7 48.4 43.1 27.3 38.9 52.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 35.6 46.1 68.9 94.8 50.6 45.3 37.0 45.7 55.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 28.8 39.1 44.0 89.8 50.0 43.4 30.5 39.1 48.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 24.8 34.2 38.7 85.4 45.4 41.0 27.3 36.8 47.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 26.2 37.7 42.7 89.7 49.7 43.9 27.9 37.9 49.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 35.2 48.9 54.3 94.8 52.4 45.5 36.5 47.3 59.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 31.1 39.2 49.2 87.4 46.7 41.7 32.9 40.8 49.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 29.4 39.2 48.3 90.2 48.0 43.5 31.4 40.3 50.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 25.9 33.9 45.9 85.1 44.6 40.8 27.7 36.9 47.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 31.9 41.1 47.6 90.0 50.1 43.4 33.3 41.1 49.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 50.8 68.6 65.3 96.3 52.5 46.0 53.6 66.4 80.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 18.2 28.7 40.5 87.6 47.0 42.5 20.4 30.6 42.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------