***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 6.4 5.8 0.2 53.7 54.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.8 5.7 0.3 55.3 55.1 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.7 5.6 0.3 55.0 55.1 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -0.1 2.0 3.8 0.3 55.2 55.1 0.2 1.6 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 5.9 5.1 3.9 0.4 56.6 56.5 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.3 4.1 2.1 0.3 54.9 55.7 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.0 5.7 0.3 54.7 54.7 4.6 5.7 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -1.3 -1.5 2.4 0.4 56.0 56.3 -3.1 -1.9 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 6.4 5.7 4.4 0.4 56.8 56.7 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 6.4 5.7 3.1 0.4 56.7 56.7 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 6.3 5.6 3.5 0.4 56.5 56.7 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.3 3.1 0.3 55.7 56.3 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.3 2.6 0.3 55.9 56.5 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.2 4.3 0.4 56.0 55.7 5.0 5.9 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.9 6.3 4.3 0.2 53.6 53.6 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.2 3.1 0.4 56.5 56.8 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.2 6.0 5.5 0.3 54.3 54.3 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 4.4 3.8 2.5 0.5 57.5 57.3 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.8 5.6 0.4 56.0 55.6 4.4 5.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.5 57.9 57.6 -0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.8 5.2 0.3 55.4 55.6 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.4 5.5 0.4 56.0 55.6 4.2 5.1 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.5 5.4 0.4 56.7 56.2 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.6 4.1 0.4 56.5 56.3 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.9 4.4 0.2 53.7 53.9 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.1 5.0 2.7 0.3 55.0 55.2 3.7 4.7 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.2 5.2 0.3 53.7 54.0 4.6 6.0 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.7 4.1 0.3 55.4 55.2 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.6 2.6 1.9 0.5 57.6 57.4 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.2 5.7 0.3 55.1 54.9 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------