***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 5.2 4.6 0.4 59.3 57.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.3 4.3 0.2 54.7 54.3 3.4 4.1 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.8 4.4 0.4 60.1 57.7 5.6 6.4 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -0.6 0.7 2.3 0.2 55.5 54.5 -0.4 0.4 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.7 2.7 0.4 61.5 58.7 2.5 3.2 3.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 3.1 2.8 0.8 0.4 61.1 58.8 1.7 2.4 3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.5 4.4 4.2 0.2 54.2 54.2 3.6 4.3 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 -2.0 -2.3 1.2 0.6 64.5 61.4 -3.9 -3.0 -2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.4 4.6 3.2 0.4 61.0 58.3 3.5 4.1 4.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.6 1.9 0.6 63.5 60.7 3.6 4.2 4.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.3 2.3 0.4 60.9 58.4 3.3 3.9 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 2.9 3.1 1.9 0.5 62.2 59.4 1.9 2.6 3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.8 1.4 0.4 60.2 57.9 2.8 3.5 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 4.9 5.0 3.2 0.5 61.6 59.0 4.1 4.7 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.8 4.5 2.9 0.0 50.9 51.4 3.8 4.4 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.9 1.9 0.4 60.3 57.8 3.8 4.5 5.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.6 4.4 4.0 0.0 50.2 51.4 3.8 4.4 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 2.2 2.5 1.4 0.7 65.3 62.1 1.5 2.0 2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.4 4.3 0.2 56.5 55.5 3.4 4.1 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 0.8 67.4 64.0 -1.2 -0.6 0.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.2 4.5 4.1 0.4 60.5 57.9 3.4 4.0 4.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.8 4.1 0.2 53.9 53.9 3.1 3.7 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.0 4.1 0.3 58.3 56.7 3.0 3.7 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 4.2 4.4 3.0 0.5 61.8 59.2 3.4 4.0 4.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.5 3.3 0.3 58.2 56.4 3.4 4.1 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.7 1.4 0.4 59.1 57.1 2.7 3.4 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.6 5.0 4.0 0.4 59.1 57.0 3.8 4.6 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 3.0 2.9 2.6 0.2 54.4 53.8 2.1 2.7 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 2.0 1.9 0.7 0.8 67.3 63.7 0.3 1.1 1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 4.8 4.8 4.4 0.3 56.9 55.8 3.8 4.5 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------