***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 16.9 14.6 -0.2 47.2 49.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.3 14.4 -0.1 48.2 49.8 16.2 17.4 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.6 14.8 -0.1 48.3 49.8 16.3 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.5 13.2 -0.3 46.6 48.6 8.1 9.8 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 18.6 17.7 13.5 -0.3 47.0 48.8 16.4 17.9 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.1 11.7 -0.3 46.9 48.2 14.7 16.4 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.0 14.2 -0.2 47.0 48.9 16.0 17.2 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.7 12.1 -0.3 46.6 48.1 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.3 13.9 -0.2 47.4 49.0 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.3 12.8 -0.2 47.2 48.8 16.0 17.5 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 18.2 17.3 13.2 -0.3 46.8 48.5 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.2 16.2 12.9 -0.3 46.1 47.7 15.0 16.5 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 18.1 17.1 12.3 -0.3 46.1 47.7 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.6 13.8 0.0 50.3 51.2 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.8 16.9 13.4 -0.3 46.1 48.2 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 18.6 17.6 12.9 -0.3 46.8 48.3 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.5 14.1 -0.2 48.1 49.8 15.5 16.6 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.0 12.2 -0.2 48.3 49.5 15.7 17.2 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.2 14.6 -0.1 49.0 50.4 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.4 9.9 -0.2 47.9 48.8 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 18.3 17.5 14.5 -0.2 47.6 49.2 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.3 14.4 0.0 50.0 51.2 16.1 17.3 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.6 14.7 0.0 49.7 50.8 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.5 13.7 -0.1 49.0 50.2 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.2 13.3 -0.3 46.5 48.7 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 17.1 16.1 11.9 -0.4 45.3 46.9 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.4 13.8 -0.3 46.6 48.7 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.1 13.4 -0.3 46.7 48.5 15.7 17.4 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.7 11.2 -0.1 48.9 49.9 10.3 11.8 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.2 14.5 -0.2 47.9 49.6 16.1 17.3 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------