***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 16.0 15.2 -0.2 47.9 48.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.0 14.9 -0.2 47.2 47.5 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.4 15.4 0.0 49.5 49.0 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.7 13.9 0.1 51.1 50.4 7.9 9.6 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 15.4 17.3 14.2 0.2 52.2 51.0 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 17.2 16.7 12.4 0.3 53.2 52.4 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.6 15.8 14.8 -0.3 46.3 47.0 14.8 16.1 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.0 5.1 12.8 0.3 53.2 51.8 3.3 4.9 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.8 14.5 0.2 52.2 50.9 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.9 16.9 13.5 0.2 52.7 51.3 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 15.1 17.3 13.8 0.2 52.9 51.6 15.5 17.1 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 14.3 16.5 13.6 0.3 53.2 51.9 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 15.4 17.5 13.0 0.2 52.5 51.6 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.3 14.3 0.1 51.2 50.0 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.1 14.2 0.0 50.5 50.2 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 15.5 17.7 13.5 0.2 52.5 51.5 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.2 14.6 -0.3 45.9 46.5 14.2 15.5 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 14.2 16.3 12.8 0.2 52.4 51.0 14.5 16.1 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.7 15.9 15.1 -0.1 48.3 48.2 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.4 11.4 10.5 0.2 52.2 50.9 9.7 11.2 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.7 15.1 0.1 50.7 49.9 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 16.7 15.9 14.8 -0.2 47.4 47.4 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 14.6 16.2 15.2 0.0 49.8 49.1 14.8 16.3 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 14.5 16.3 14.2 0.1 51.5 50.3 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 15.0 16.5 13.9 -0.1 48.5 48.5 15.3 16.7 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.8 12.7 0.2 52.4 51.5 15.1 16.6 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 14.9 16.4 14.4 -0.2 47.3 47.6 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 17.9 17.4 14.2 0.1 51.8 51.0 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.1 11.8 0.2 52.2 50.9 9.4 10.9 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.9 15.1 -0.2 47.6 47.8 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------