***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 15.4 13.7 -0.1 48.9 49.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.3 13.5 -0.1 47.9 48.9 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.9 14.0 0.1 51.8 51.5 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.1 12.2 0.1 51.7 51.3 6.9 8.0 9.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.2 12.8 0.2 53.9 52.8 15.0 16.0 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.3 11.0 0.4 55.9 54.2 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.0 13.3 -0.2 46.3 48.0 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.0 11.3 0.3 54.4 53.0 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.9 13.3 0.2 53.9 52.7 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.0 12.2 0.3 54.9 53.4 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.1 12.5 0.3 54.7 53.3 14.8 15.8 16.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.2 12.1 0.2 53.8 52.5 13.9 15.0 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.2 11.7 0.2 54.0 52.7 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.0 13.2 0.3 55.1 53.6 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.5 12.7 0.0 49.4 49.5 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.6 12.2 0.3 54.6 53.2 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.4 13.1 -0.2 46.1 47.7 13.8 14.5 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.6 11.5 0.3 55.3 53.6 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.4 13.7 0.0 49.9 50.2 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.3 9.0 0.2 52.9 51.8 9.1 10.1 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.9 13.8 0.2 52.8 52.1 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.3 13.4 0.0 49.2 49.7 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.8 13.9 0.1 52.4 51.9 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.9 13.1 0.3 55.0 53.6 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.5 12.4 0.0 49.3 49.7 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.4 11.2 0.1 52.6 51.6 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.5 13.0 -0.1 48.1 49.0 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.9 12.6 0.1 52.5 51.7 14.7 15.8 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.4 10.5 0.3 55.0 53.4 9.1 10.1 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.2 13.7 -0.1 48.5 49.3 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------