***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 9.4 15.5 124.8 71.0 61.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 10.7 12.4 16.6 135.0 74.1 66.6 2.3 5.0 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.2 14.4 15.6 121.7 70.0 61.1 3.3 7.0 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 45 55 100 11.6 12.7 15.8 127.7 71.9 65.5 4.9 7.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 9.8 14.3 15.5 120.7 69.4 61.9 4.4 8.0 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.6 8.9 13.8 105.3 63.2 56.6 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 10.1 10.9 16.1 132.0 73.3 65.3 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 15.6 18.3 14.8 101.3 61.1 55.7 8.0 13.4 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 8.0 11.7 15.4 118.8 68.6 61.0 3.5 6.6 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 10.5 12.3 15.2 103.5 61.6 55.1 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 10.6 15.1 14.8 118.2 68.4 61.5 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 9.3 11.6 13.1 104.3 62.8 56.7 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 8.9 11.2 14.1 108.5 64.5 57.7 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 10.8 12.4 16.7 101.1 61.0 55.3 5.3 9.1 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 14.8 17.5 15.4 143.2 76.3 69.2 3.2 6.6 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 7.7 10.5 14.2 114.2 66.9 60.2 3.3 6.1 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 10.4 12.2 16.7 138.8 75.0 68.3 3.0 5.6 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.1 7.7 14.9 87.9 53.7 47.7 3.7 6.9 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 12.7 14.0 16.3 128.6 72.2 65.0 2.4 5.7 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.4 9.1 17.1 91.2 55.6 50.9 4.1 7.6 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 7.7 11.1 15.0 118.2 68.7 60.3 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 10.7 11.5 15.6 123.3 70.6 64.8 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 7.2 10.5 16.1 117.8 68.5 61.8 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.3 12.1 15.6 100.9 60.6 53.6 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 6.9 10.2 16.6 119.1 68.9 60.4 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.3 12.2 96.4 59.7 52.9 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.2 9.4 16.5 121.6 69.8 60.5 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 10.5 11.5 14.8 131.4 72.7 66.5 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 15.1 13.1 15.7 87.2 53.7 48.4 5.9 11.6 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 11.4 13.4 16.6 134.0 73.8 65.3 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------