***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 5.0 13.6 108.0 65.5 55.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.1 8.3 13.0 101.5 62.8 54.3 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.4 11.7 14.5 107.6 65.3 56.5 3.5 7.1 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.9 16.3 16.6 112.2 67.1 57.7 5.7 10.0 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.4 16.7 109.6 66.1 56.9 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.4 15.3 21.0 119.5 69.1 58.9 5.5 9.2 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.0 8.0 12.6 100.8 62.8 54.5 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.5 20.6 19.1 120.0 69.4 59.8 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.7 17.0 111.8 66.8 57.8 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.4 14.5 19.2 118.2 68.8 59.7 4.0 7.9 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.8 12.8 16.7 112.4 67.1 57.5 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.2 13.8 16.8 115.6 68.0 58.0 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.8 16.7 19.1 116.3 68.1 58.6 5.9 10.1 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.2 18.2 18.6 111.6 66.2 58.1 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.6 16.0 16.0 116.0 68.4 57.0 3.7 8.0 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.0 12.9 17.5 112.1 66.8 56.9 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 7.5 8.1 11.7 93.9 60.4 52.3 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.9 12.4 21.1 119.7 69.1 60.8 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.2 9.6 13.6 102.9 63.2 54.7 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.0 15.1 23.0 117.9 68.4 59.7 4.9 8.8 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.3 11.9 15.2 110.3 66.4 57.1 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.8 9.6 12.5 96.1 60.9 52.7 4.1 7.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.2 12.1 14.7 105.3 64.1 55.5 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.7 14.5 18.3 113.8 67.3 59.3 4.3 8.3 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.1 13.7 16.7 113.8 67.7 59.1 4.4 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.8 13.0 17.9 117.4 68.6 59.3 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.5 11.7 15.4 111.7 66.9 57.9 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.3 12.4 16.5 112.9 67.3 56.6 3.0 6.5 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 14.9 20.6 21.8 118.2 68.7 60.7 6.7 12.0 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.9 13.5 104.6 64.1 55.4 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------