***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 2.8 13.1 97.5 60.6 50.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.9 5.9 11.4 84.9 53.9 47.1 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.8 12.8 94.9 59.4 49.2 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.0 10.1 15.5 101.6 62.4 50.8 4.4 7.3 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.5 8.7 15.3 103.9 63.2 51.7 3.0 5.6 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.7 18.9 100.5 61.7 53.6 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.0 11.5 85.7 54.8 48.1 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 10.9 13.5 16.8 108.0 65.0 55.1 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.3 15.2 105.5 64.1 52.2 2.4 4.6 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 7.1 8.5 17.0 106.9 64.5 54.0 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.2 7.2 14.4 104.3 63.7 52.7 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.7 8.2 14.2 106.8 64.8 54.1 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.0 8.0 16.5 105.3 63.8 54.2 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.5 8.0 16.5 98.7 60.5 50.6 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.9 14.4 100.3 62.5 49.6 2.5 4.6 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.4 15.2 102.0 62.4 52.0 3.2 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.2 10.9 83.6 53.3 46.4 2.6 4.7 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 5.5 6.5 19.2 106.4 63.9 54.1 2.4 4.3 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.7 11.7 86.4 54.8 47.2 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 7.2 8.6 22.1 107.9 64.4 56.6 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.2 7.2 13.8 103.3 63.3 51.4 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.1 5.8 11.5 84.1 53.6 46.2 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.7 12.7 90.5 56.9 48.0 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.7 16.4 101.7 62.0 51.5 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.5 8.2 15.6 97.8 61.1 51.4 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.6 7.8 15.5 103.2 63.4 54.8 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.9 14.8 95.8 60.2 51.5 2.7 5.0 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.8 15.3 102.4 62.9 50.2 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 10.7 20.1 105.8 63.6 54.3 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.9 11.9 87.9 55.5 47.9 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------