***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 13.1 12.7 120.0 69.9 56.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 11.4 16.1 12.3 120.0 69.8 56.8 4.8 8.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.4 16.3 12.4 113.6 67.8 56.6 5.7 9.9 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 22.1 25.6 14.3 107.2 65.6 54.9 13.7 19.3 25.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.7 20.8 14.1 105.3 64.9 54.6 9.4 14.6 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.1 14.8 17.3 100.3 61.8 53.2 6.6 10.9 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.8 15.9 12.6 125.4 71.4 58.2 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 23.4 26.2 15.4 104.0 64.0 54.7 14.4 20.3 27.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.9 16.9 14.0 109.1 66.1 55.3 6.5 11.0 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.5 20.8 15.8 109.4 65.9 55.7 9.0 14.2 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.7 18.0 13.3 101.5 63.7 53.5 7.4 12.5 19.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.9 15.7 12.8 98.3 62.4 52.7 5.8 10.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 15.9 18.5 15.3 102.4 63.2 53.7 7.9 13.1 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.6 20.6 15.1 108.9 65.6 56.8 7.8 13.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 13.1 17.0 13.0 109.8 67.1 55.4 6.2 10.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.9 17.1 14.2 101.1 63.4 53.7 7.5 12.2 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.8 15.5 12.2 123.2 70.8 56.4 4.2 8.0 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.0 17.9 18.0 112.3 66.6 57.0 8.8 12.8 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 13.9 19.3 12.2 115.0 68.3 56.3 5.7 10.8 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 17.0 21.1 111.0 66.0 56.9 7.6 11.7 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.5 16.5 12.7 110.8 66.7 54.9 6.8 11.0 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.0 16.9 12.2 117.8 69.4 56.4 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.5 17.3 12.4 109.7 66.5 56.2 6.3 10.9 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.2 17.5 15.3 111.6 66.5 56.8 7.3 11.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.2 18.0 14.9 116.3 68.5 56.1 7.3 11.7 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.8 17.1 14.3 101.9 63.2 54.1 8.0 12.5 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.5 18.8 14.4 120.5 69.9 56.6 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.1 18.5 13.8 105.7 65.3 54.6 7.1 12.2 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.4 25.6 19.2 111.5 66.3 57.4 12.0 18.1 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.8 15.2 12.5 119.8 69.7 57.2 4.6 8.4 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------