***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 48.9 54.8 112.0 65.4 59.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 38.6 43.7 53.4 109.3 63.5 58.5 23.3 33.6 46.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 47.4 52.5 55.4 109.1 63.4 57.8 30.8 42.0 54.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 59.2 63.3 62.2 111.5 65.1 58.5 48.0 55.7 63.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 51.5 55.0 61.6 109.6 63.9 57.4 40.0 47.9 56.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 45.2 47.9 71.1 106.4 61.4 57.2 31.5 40.9 51.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 35.6 40.6 52.7 109.7 63.8 59.1 21.1 30.8 42.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 75.1 80.4 66.0 108.5 63.2 57.7 58.1 70.3 82.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 44.2 48.5 61.7 111.2 65.0 58.3 33.9 41.3 48.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 54.5 59.1 67.2 109.6 64.0 58.0 41.3 50.4 60.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 50.9 54.8 59.2 109.0 63.4 57.2 37.3 46.7 56.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 50.1 53.3 56.8 106.5 61.5 56.1 36.8 46.2 56.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 52.0 56.1 65.1 108.3 62.8 57.8 39.4 48.6 58.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 58.1 60.7 66.9 104.9 60.1 55.8 42.4 53.3 65.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 49.8 57.7 58.7 115.9 67.6 60.7 34.9 45.1 56.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 46.1 49.3 61.0 107.2 62.0 56.3 33.0 42.1 52.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 37.7 41.9 51.4 108.6 63.1 58.1 23.2 32.9 44.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 44.2 46.4 73.1 106.6 61.6 56.4 32.9 40.6 48.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 46.2 49.9 53.8 107.5 62.3 57.3 28.8 40.3 53.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 49.6 52.8 83.3 107.1 62.0 57.3 37.3 45.9 55.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 43.7 48.4 56.7 110.5 64.5 57.5 32.0 40.3 49.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 42.0 43.6 51.8 104.2 59.8 55.4 27.5 37.2 48.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 43.8 46.1 55.8 105.5 60.8 56.1 28.7 38.8 50.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 51.2 54.2 65.6 106.8 61.7 56.7 36.3 46.3 57.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 46.4 50.3 63.8 111.2 65.0 58.4 35.8 43.1 50.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 45.5 48.6 59.8 105.2 60.6 56.8 33.1 42.1 52.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 42.7 48.1 61.1 111.6 65.2 59.3 29.8 38.7 48.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 46.4 50.8 60.4 112.1 65.2 58.7 34.7 42.7 51.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 71.4 74.5 76.9 105.7 60.8 56.0 53.6 65.9 79.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 36.9 42.6 54.3 110.6 64.4 59.3 21.1 31.6 43.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------