***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 3.9 4.5 4.6 2.1 76.0 73.9 0.8 2.2 3.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 3.6 4.1 4.5 2.2 76.7 75.0 0.5 1.8 3.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 5.9 6.4 4.7 2.0 75.6 73.9 2.8 4.2 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 0.9 1.3 2.3 2.2 75.9 74.8 -3.6 -1.7 0.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 2.8 3.0 2.9 1.8 73.4 72.0 -0.3 1.1 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 2.6 3.1 1.0 2.8 82.4 81.6 -0.8 0.4 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 4.0 4.4 4.5 2.2 76.8 75.3 0.7 2.1 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 -2.6 -2.4 0.3 2.0 75.6 74.5 -7.0 -5.2 -3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 4.3 4.6 2.9 1.9 77.1 75.8 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 3.8 4.0 1.2 1.9 75.2 74.0 1.1 2.2 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 3.9 4.2 2.7 2.2 78.8 77.6 0.9 2.0 3.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 2.7 3.1 1.7 2.3 78.5 77.4 -0.5 0.8 2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 3.3 3.4 1.7 1.9 74.9 74.2 0.5 1.6 2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 4.4 4.6 2.6 1.9 74.2 73.0 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 4.5 5.4 4.2 2.6 85.4 84.0 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 4.3 4.6 2.2 2.2 77.7 76.6 1.2 2.4 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 4.0 4.3 4.3 2.2 76.5 75.2 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 1.7 1.9 0.8 2.0 74.4 73.2 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 3.9 4.4 4.5 2.2 77.6 75.8 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7 2.2 74.7 73.5 -3.8 -2.5 -1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 3.8 4.0 4.1 1.9 75.3 73.9 0.8 2.0 3.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 3.5 3.8 4.5 2.2 77.0 75.5 0.5 1.8 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 3.4 3.8 4.3 2.2 78.6 76.9 0.6 1.7 2.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 3.6 3.8 2.8 1.9 74.7 73.5 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 3.3 3.7 3.8 2.0 74.3 72.3 0.5 1.8 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 3.3 3.6 1.3 2.3 78.7 77.8 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 3.8 4.4 4.2 2.0 74.7 72.7 0.6 2.1 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.3 78.5 77.6 -0.5 0.8 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 1.3 1.6 0.0 2.2 76.6 75.3 -2.5 -1.0 0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 4.3 4.8 4.7 2.2 77.4 75.5 0.9 2.3 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------