***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.3 5.9 5.5 0.5 56.8 55.6 4.5 5.5 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.1 5.6 5.2 0.5 57.3 56.4 4.3 5.3 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.6 8.2 5.4 0.4 56.4 55.5 6.7 7.8 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 0.3 1.9 2.4 0.1 52.1 52.0 0.6 1.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 4.4 3.9 2.6 0.0 50.7 51.0 2.7 3.9 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.1 0.4 0.2 53.6 53.3 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.9 5.3 0.5 57.6 56.3 4.5 5.4 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.4 -2.0 0.2 -0.1 48.3 49.4 -3.0 -1.9 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.8 5.2 2.9 0.1 51.9 51.9 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.9 5.1 1.1 0.0 49.7 50.3 4.1 5.1 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.5 4.7 1.8 0.0 49.8 50.2 3.7 4.7 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.3 1.0 0.0 49.7 50.4 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.8 4.1 0.7 0.1 51.8 51.9 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.9 3.0 0.2 53.6 53.6 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.0 5.5 3.6 0.3 54.8 53.6 4.2 5.3 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.1 5.4 1.3 0.1 51.1 51.3 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.4 5.9 5.1 0.5 57.3 56.2 4.6 5.5 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.7 2.6 0.5 0.1 50.9 51.5 1.8 2.6 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.0 5.6 5.2 0.5 57.4 56.5 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -0.9 0.2 -1.6 0.0 49.3 50.6 -0.7 0.2 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.6 5.2 4.4 0.2 53.4 53.1 3.8 4.9 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.7 5.2 4.9 0.5 57.6 56.6 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.7 5.1 5.0 0.4 57.2 56.3 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.2 2.6 0.2 52.9 53.1 4.1 5.0 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.8 5.3 3.9 0.3 54.2 53.5 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.3 0.7 0.4 55.6 54.8 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.4 4.9 0.4 56.2 55.1 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.7 3.4 2.6 0.2 53.1 52.5 2.0 3.2 4.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.2 2.5 -0.1 0.1 51.3 52.0 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.4 6.1 5.4 0.5 57.5 56.4 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------