***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 5.2 5.1 5.0 0.7 66.4 63.7 3.6 4.4 5.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 4.8 4.8 4.9 0.8 68.2 65.2 3.4 4.1 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 7.1 7.1 5.1 0.7 67.7 65.1 5.6 6.4 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 0.7 1.2 2.3 0.6 64.8 62.5 -0.4 0.4 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 3.4 3.7 2.7 0.5 61.8 60.0 2.5 3.2 3.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 3.1 3.2 0.6 1.0 71.2 68.1 1.7 2.4 3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 5.0 5.0 4.9 0.8 68.8 65.7 3.6 4.3 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -2.7 -2.4 0.3 0.5 62.6 61.1 -3.9 -3.0 -2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 4.4 4.7 2.9 0.6 64.4 62.2 3.5 4.1 4.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 4.4 4.6 1.2 0.5 62.6 61.0 3.6 4.2 4.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 4.1 4.5 2.2 0.6 65.9 63.5 3.3 3.9 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 3.3 3.2 1.3 0.6 65.3 63.2 1.9 2.6 3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 3.7 3.9 1.1 0.5 62.7 60.7 2.8 3.5 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 5.2 5.1 2.8 0.6 64.1 62.3 4.1 4.7 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 5.1 5.3 3.8 0.9 72.6 68.6 3.8 4.4 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 4.7 5.1 1.6 0.6 65.6 63.0 3.8 4.5 5.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 5.0 5.0 4.7 0.8 68.1 65.1 3.8 4.4 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 2.2 2.5 0.7 0.6 64.7 62.7 1.5 2.0 2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 4.9 4.9 4.9 0.8 69.1 66.0 3.4 4.1 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -0.4 -0.1 -1.3 0.6 63.7 61.8 -1.2 -0.6 0.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 4.7 4.6 4.2 0.6 64.0 61.9 3.4 4.0 4.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 4.4 4.4 4.7 0.8 68.3 65.4 3.1 3.7 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 4.5 4.6 4.7 0.8 70.5 67.3 3.0 3.7 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 4.6 4.5 2.7 0.7 66.0 63.8 3.4 4.0 4.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.7 3.8 0.6 63.2 61.0 3.4 4.1 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 4.0 4.1 0.8 0.8 67.8 65.2 2.7 3.4 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 5.4 5.3 4.5 0.6 64.4 62.0 3.8 4.6 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 3.3 3.4 2.7 0.7 67.4 64.4 2.1 2.7 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 1.9 1.9 0.0 0.8 66.8 64.4 0.3 1.1 1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 5.3 5.3 5.0 0.8 68.9 65.9 3.8 4.5 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------