***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.5 13.8 2.2 71.0 69.2 11.1 13.1 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 14.8 15.2 13.9 2.3 72.6 70.2 11.0 12.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 13.7 15.1 13.6 1.7 65.7 64.1 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 48 52 100 7.5 7.5 10.4 1.8 65.4 64.4 2.8 5.3 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 13.7 14.6 11.4 1.2 60.5 59.6 11.1 13.3 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 14.5 14.5 10.2 2.1 68.1 66.5 9.9 12.1 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 14.6 15.2 13.9 2.5 74.3 71.8 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 2.2 2.2 8.9 0.6 55.2 54.5 -0.4 1.6 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 13.6 14.3 12.3 1.0 59.1 58.2 11.1 13.2 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 13.6 13.4 9.8 0.3 52.9 52.6 10.8 13.0 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 13.7 14.3 11.7 1.1 59.1 58.3 11.0 13.2 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 13.1 13.8 10.5 1.2 60.7 59.4 10.1 12.4 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 13.8 15.1 11.8 1.7 64.5 62.6 11.0 13.2 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 14.0 13.8 11.6 0.3 53.1 52.6 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 15.5 16.0 13.5 2.4 71.7 70.4 10.6 12.9 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 14.2 15.5 11.5 1.6 64.0 62.6 11.4 13.7 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 13.6 14.1 13.4 2.3 72.3 69.7 10.2 11.9 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.0 9.1 0.3 52.5 52.0 10.6 12.7 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 14.8 15.1 13.8 2.1 70.1 67.9 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.5 8.5 7.3 0.7 56.6 55.6 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 13.7 14.6 13.2 1.2 61.0 59.9 11.2 13.3 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 13.3 14.5 13.0 1.5 65.5 63.4 11.2 12.9 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 47 53 100 15.1 15.1 13.6 1.7 66.3 64.4 11.5 13.4 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 13.7 13.8 11.6 0.5 54.5 53.9 11.3 13.2 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 47 53 100 14.8 15.1 12.5 1.9 67.9 66.5 10.9 12.9 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.7 10.8 2.5 72.5 69.6 10.3 12.6 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.5 13.3 2.2 71.4 69.5 11.0 12.9 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 48 52 100 15.5 15.6 11.6 1.9 66.4 65.4 10.8 13.2 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.2 8.5 0.4 53.8 53.1 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 14.8 15.2 14.0 2.4 72.4 70.2 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------