***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 18.0 18.5 15.6 1.2 63.7 58.4 15.9 17.4 18.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 17.9 18.8 15.9 1.6 68.1 61.5 16.2 17.4 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.3 18.7 16.0 1.2 63.0 58.0 16.3 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.7 13.0 0.9 59.8 55.4 8.1 9.8 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 16.1 18.5 13.6 0.6 56.8 53.5 16.4 17.9 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 14.5 17.0 11.6 0.7 57.4 54.3 14.7 16.4 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 17.7 18.5 15.8 1.5 68.0 61.4 16.0 17.2 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.3 5.3 11.9 0.4 53.9 51.9 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 15.8 18.1 14.1 0.6 56.9 53.7 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 15.7 18.0 12.9 0.5 55.2 52.8 16.0 17.5 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 15.7 18.2 13.5 0.6 56.8 53.7 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 14.7 17.1 12.9 0.6 56.0 53.3 15.0 16.5 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 18.1 18.0 12.2 0.7 56.7 53.9 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 18.2 18.0 14.1 0.5 55.4 53.7 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.8 18.4 14.0 1.2 64.4 58.7 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 18.6 18.6 13.0 0.8 57.8 54.5 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 17.0 17.8 15.7 1.5 67.9 61.5 15.5 16.6 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 15.5 17.5 12.5 0.4 53.7 52.1 15.7 17.2 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.8 18.5 16.0 1.5 66.6 60.6 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.8 11.6 9.4 0.1 51.2 50.1 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 16.0 18.4 14.9 0.8 58.3 54.6 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 15.9 18.3 15.5 1.2 64.0 59.0 16.1 17.3 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 18.1 18.7 16.0 1.2 63.8 58.8 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 18.2 18.0 14.0 0.6 55.8 53.6 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 18.1 18.3 13.7 0.9 60.1 55.8 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.4 12.1 0.9 59.8 55.5 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 18.2 18.6 14.8 1.0 61.9 57.2 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 18.0 18.4 13.3 1.0 61.3 56.6 15.7 17.4 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 10.1 11.9 11.4 0.2 52.3 51.2 10.3 11.8 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 17.8 18.7 15.9 1.5 67.3 60.9 16.1 17.3 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------