***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 14.3 16.0 15.8 0.0 49.5 49.6 14.6 16.0 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 14.4 16.6 16.1 0.5 55.4 53.1 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 14.6 16.4 16.1 -0.1 48.9 49.2 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 7.2 9.0 13.2 -0.5 43.8 46.0 7.9 9.6 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 15.1 16.4 13.7 -0.8 41.7 44.5 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.9 11.8 -0.6 44.1 45.7 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 14.5 16.5 16.1 0.5 55.8 53.4 14.8 16.1 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.3 12.2 -0.6 43.7 45.7 3.3 4.9 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 14.7 15.9 14.1 -0.7 42.2 44.9 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 14.7 16.1 13.0 -0.7 43.0 45.3 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 15.1 16.5 13.6 -0.7 43.1 45.3 15.5 17.1 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 14.1 15.7 13.3 -0.5 45.0 46.6 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 15.2 16.8 12.6 -0.5 45.1 46.7 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 14.1 15.7 14.1 -0.6 43.9 46.4 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 15.5 16.9 14.2 -0.2 47.8 48.6 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 15.5 17.0 13.2 -0.5 44.4 46.2 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 13.9 16.0 15.9 0.5 55.9 53.3 14.2 15.5 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 14.0 15.5 12.7 -0.6 43.8 46.1 14.5 16.1 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 14.2 16.4 16.1 0.3 53.7 52.1 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 9.3 10.7 9.9 -0.6 44.0 46.1 9.7 11.2 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 14.8 16.1 15.0 -0.6 43.5 45.7 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 14.3 16.3 15.6 0.2 52.5 51.3 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 14.4 16.3 16.0 0.1 50.8 50.5 14.8 16.3 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 14.2 15.7 14.1 -0.6 43.9 46.2 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 14.9 16.3 13.9 -0.4 45.0 46.7 15.3 16.7 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 14.8 16.6 12.7 0.0 50.0 50.2 15.1 16.6 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 14.9 16.4 15.0 -0.2 47.9 48.5 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 15.4 16.8 13.5 -0.4 45.1 46.7 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.0 10.4 11.8 -0.6 43.8 46.2 9.4 10.9 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 14.4 16.4 16.1 0.3 54.1 52.4 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------