***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.1 4.6 7.3 57.3 42.5 36.5 3.1 6.0 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.7 4.0 6.6 55.3 42.5 35.1 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.5 5.2 7.6 59.2 42.1 35.9 3.5 7.1 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.7 8.6 8.8 62.8 44.8 38.5 5.7 10.0 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.5 5.2 8.7 63.7 44.8 38.6 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.6 9.0 10.6 74.0 48.8 43.0 5.5 9.2 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.3 3.6 6.3 53.0 41.0 33.8 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.3 11.3 10.8 74.6 49.8 41.5 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.4 4.8 8.9 64.0 44.7 39.0 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.6 7.2 10.2 69.6 47.5 40.7 4.0 7.9 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.4 6.3 9.1 64.9 44.8 38.3 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.5 7.5 9.7 72.3 48.7 41.0 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.2 8.8 9.8 66.0 45.1 39.3 5.9 10.1 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.8 8.6 10.0 59.8 41.9 36.9 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.9 6.7 8.0 60.0 45.7 37.7 3.7 8.0 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.4 9.4 67.0 45.7 40.0 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.8 3.8 6.4 53.2 41.3 34.3 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 6.6 10.9 69.9 46.8 41.3 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.9 4.3 6.9 56.3 42.3 35.5 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.6 8.4 13.0 74.1 48.7 41.8 4.9 8.8 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.2 8.0 59.4 41.7 36.6 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.8 5.4 7.0 54.4 41.3 34.6 4.1 7.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.3 6.0 7.3 56.1 40.4 35.0 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.7 6.7 9.6 63.8 43.9 38.8 4.3 8.3 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.7 6.0 8.5 58.8 41.2 36.8 4.4 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.5 5.4 9.7 66.7 44.9 38.3 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.2 4.4 7.9 57.4 41.2 36.2 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.4 5.6 8.6 63.4 46.3 39.4 3.0 6.5 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.6 11.2 11.8 71.9 47.9 42.4 6.7 12.0 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.9 4.4 6.8 57.1 42.9 36.0 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------