***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.7 5.7 9.9 80.3 54.7 42.9 2.4 4.8 8.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.9 6.7 9.6 87.9 57.8 46.7 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.7 6.9 10.4 83.6 55.8 44.7 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.6 11.1 15.0 107.6 65.8 50.7 4.4 7.3 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.3 13.1 97.6 61.6 49.1 3.0 5.6 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.2 8.9 16.4 112.5 66.9 53.4 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.7 9.6 88.8 58.3 45.9 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.1 14.3 15.6 113.4 67.0 53.3 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.7 6.2 13.0 92.4 59.0 47.3 2.4 4.6 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.2 8.2 15.3 103.9 63.2 51.0 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.3 7.6 13.4 107.3 65.2 51.5 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.8 8.9 14.0 114.2 67.6 53.7 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.8 9.0 15.5 115.1 68.0 54.8 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 7.3 7.7 15.0 92.8 59.1 51.4 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.5 8.3 15.1 113.5 68.3 49.9 2.5 4.6 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.7 8.5 15.0 114.2 67.9 54.3 3.2 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.2 9.6 90.7 58.9 48.3 2.6 4.7 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.5 16.8 106.4 64.0 52.3 2.4 4.3 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.9 6.1 9.9 86.4 57.2 46.8 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.4 9.2 18.8 113.5 66.9 52.0 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.5 5.8 11.4 86.6 57.0 45.7 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.8 10.3 89.5 58.7 49.5 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.7 10.7 85.9 56.8 47.1 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.2 14.4 94.8 59.6 49.9 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.3 12.1 86.6 57.3 45.3 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.9 9.1 14.5 115.6 68.2 54.9 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.7 10.5 80.3 54.5 43.1 2.7 5.0 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.6 8.1 15.7 114.9 68.4 52.0 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 11.3 17.5 109.1 65.1 52.5 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.2 9.7 85.7 57.2 45.3 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------