***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.6 14.4 13.9 100.6 62.9 52.2 5.6 9.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.7 14.8 13.9 112.1 67.1 53.9 4.8 8.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.9 13.9 13.7 98.7 62.1 51.6 5.7 9.9 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.3 24.7 16.6 103.5 63.8 53.7 13.7 19.3 25.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 17.8 19.4 15.6 99.4 61.8 52.8 9.4 14.6 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.1 17.0 18.9 113.6 67.2 59.1 6.6 10.9 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.6 13.2 13.2 107.9 65.4 52.0 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 23.4 26.9 17.8 108.9 65.2 56.3 14.4 20.3 27.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.6 15.7 97.2 60.9 52.1 6.5 11.0 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.4 19.9 18.3 105.6 63.9 54.8 9.0 14.2 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.3 17.7 15.1 102.1 62.9 53.7 7.4 12.5 19.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.9 16.7 15.2 105.2 64.1 55.7 5.8 10.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.1 18.8 16.8 104.6 64.0 56.5 7.9 13.1 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.2 18.6 18.6 100.0 61.9 52.3 7.8 13.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.6 16.6 16.1 108.2 66.1 52.8 6.2 10.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.8 17.3 15.8 103.0 63.5 55.0 7.5 12.2 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.7 13.7 13.8 111.7 66.9 53.4 4.2 8.0 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.2 17.4 19.8 107.9 64.7 55.9 8.8 12.8 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 14.7 18.1 14.1 109.8 66.2 53.8 5.7 10.8 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.2 16.3 20.6 107.1 64.2 55.9 7.6 11.7 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.4 14.7 14.7 98.6 62.0 52.2 6.8 11.0 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.2 15.0 14.5 108.0 65.4 53.1 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.1 16.1 14.4 103.8 64.0 52.8 6.3 10.9 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.5 16.0 17.6 102.1 62.9 53.5 7.3 11.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.4 15.6 15.7 100.6 62.4 52.5 7.3 11.7 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 14.5 17.1 15.6 101.5 63.0 55.3 8.0 12.5 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.7 15.0 14.4 98.7 61.9 51.3 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 15.4 18.4 16.5 106.1 65.0 54.1 7.1 12.2 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.7 24.6 20.2 108.2 64.6 55.9 12.0 18.1 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.0 13.1 13.5 104.8 64.5 52.3 4.6 8.4 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------