***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 23.8 27.5 37.1 72.9 35.2 34.5 26.5 35.7 46.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 20.5 26.9 36.2 78.5 39.2 37.8 23.3 33.6 46.0 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 26.9 32.0 37.6 73.1 35.0 34.4 30.8 42.0 54.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 46.3 53.9 50.0 85.2 46.1 42.7 48.0 55.7 63.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 38.8 43.3 45.0 78.7 39.9 38.8 40.0 47.9 56.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 46.1 40.9 55.3 91.6 50.0 47.4 31.5 40.9 51.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 18.9 23.8 35.3 77.2 38.1 37.3 21.1 30.8 42.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 56.1 68.2 55.0 89.3 47.2 44.1 58.1 70.3 82.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 32.6 35.6 44.6 76.5 37.1 36.7 33.9 41.3 48.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 39.9 46.8 54.2 85.4 43.4 41.4 41.3 50.4 60.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 35.8 42.5 46.4 82.8 42.6 40.7 37.3 46.7 56.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 35.2 43.7 47.4 86.2 45.4 43.1 36.8 46.2 56.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 38.6 45.6 51.1 85.3 44.7 43.6 39.4 48.6 58.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 40.8 45.2 53.3 78.8 37.7 37.6 42.4 53.3 65.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 33.7 47.8 50.1 94.1 54.2 46.7 34.9 45.1 56.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 32.1 38.6 47.8 83.7 43.7 42.3 33.0 42.1 52.1 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 21.0 26.3 35.9 78.3 38.5 38.0 23.2 32.9 44.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 32.2 37.7 58.1 86.5 43.6 42.1 32.9 40.6 48.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 25.2 32.2 36.9 77.2 38.1 37.0 28.8 40.3 53.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 50.5 44.0 64.3 88.6 46.1 43.5 37.3 45.9 55.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 30.1 33.5 40.5 73.7 36.1 35.5 32.0 40.3 49.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 25.6 30.1 38.4 78.0 37.7 37.5 27.5 37.2 48.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 25.4 30.1 38.5 74.6 35.3 35.2 28.7 38.8 50.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 34.4 39.2 49.9 79.2 38.2 37.9 36.3 46.3 57.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 33.7 37.2 43.3 74.5 36.4 36.0 35.8 43.1 50.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 47.1 38.5 47.6 82.8 43.3 42.0 33.1 42.1 52.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 27.5 30.5 39.0 72.3 34.3 34.1 29.8 38.7 48.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 33.5 42.7 50.6 89.9 50.1 45.0 34.7 42.7 51.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 72.5 62.6 60.9 88.1 45.2 43.3 53.6 65.9 79.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 18.2 23.8 36.0 76.4 37.8 36.4 21.1 31.6 43.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------