***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.1 4.3 0.0 49.8 50.4 2.8 4.1 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.2 3.5 3.8 -0.4 44.1 45.6 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.0 4.3 -0.1 48.0 48.8 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.7 -0.5 1.1 -0.6 40.3 42.4 -1.1 0.2 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 3.6 3.1 2.2 0.0 49.3 50.4 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 2.7 2.3 -0.5 0.0 50.6 51.6 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.4 3.7 3.9 -0.3 45.7 47.3 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -2.7 -3.3 -0.6 -0.1 47.8 49.2 -4.5 -3.1 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 4.4 3.8 2.2 -0.2 46.2 48.3 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 4.4 3.8 0.4 -0.2 46.6 48.3 2.9 4.1 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 4.2 3.7 1.4 -0.1 48.0 50.1 2.6 3.8 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 2.7 2.4 0.6 0.1 51.1 52.3 1.1 2.3 3.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 3.8 3.6 0.6 0.2 53.3 54.5 2.1 3.3 4.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 4.6 4.0 1.8 -0.3 44.8 46.4 3.2 4.3 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 4.6 3.4 2.1 -0.8 36.6 40.3 3.2 4.1 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 4.9 4.5 1.0 0.0 49.9 51.6 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.5 3.7 3.6 -0.5 42.3 44.2 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 2.0 1.6 -0.2 -0.1 47.9 49.0 0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 4.1 3.4 3.8 -0.4 43.9 45.4 2.7 3.8 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -0.4 -0.7 -1.9 0.2 52.3 52.2 -2.1 -0.8 0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 4.2 3.7 3.6 -0.1 48.6 49.9 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 3.7 2.8 3.5 -0.5 41.6 43.8 2.3 3.3 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 3.7 3.0 3.5 -0.4 43.6 45.3 2.4 3.4 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 4.0 3.5 1.9 -0.2 46.9 48.4 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 4.4 4.0 3.3 0.0 49.8 50.3 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 3.6 3.6 0.2 0.3 54.6 54.9 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 4.9 4.6 4.0 0.1 51.9 52.1 3.1 4.5 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 2.9 1.9 1.4 -0.6 40.7 43.3 1.4 2.5 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 1.2 0.8 -1.0 0.0 49.9 50.5 -0.4 0.9 2.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.7 4.0 4.0 -0.3 45.8 47.1 3.1 4.3 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------