***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.8 5.2 0.2 52.5 52.7 4.6 5.7 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.3 4.8 0.0 49.5 51.0 4.4 5.3 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.0 5.2 0.1 52.0 52.3 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 2.4 2.2 2.6 0.2 53.4 53.0 0.8 2.0 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.3 2.7 0.2 53.7 54.1 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 3.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 50.0 52.4 1.9 2.9 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.4 5.6 4.9 0.0 50.3 51.4 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.2 -1.8 0.4 0.0 49.5 52.1 -2.9 -1.7 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.3 3.0 0.2 53.2 54.0 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.1 1.3 0.0 50.5 52.5 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.9 1.9 0.1 52.5 53.5 3.7 4.8 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 3.8 3.5 1.2 0.1 51.7 53.4 2.3 3.4 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 4.5 4.2 0.9 0.1 52.0 53.5 3.1 4.1 5.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.8 2.8 0.0 49.6 51.8 4.9 5.8 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.6 3.5 0.1 52.0 51.9 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.6 1.5 0.2 52.7 53.6 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.6 4.7 -0.1 48.9 50.7 4.7 5.6 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 50.2 52.3 1.8 2.6 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.1 5.3 4.8 0.0 49.4 50.8 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.8 0.3 -1.5 0.0 49.7 52.0 -0.7 0.3 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.3 4.4 0.2 53.3 53.5 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.8 4.7 4.4 -0.2 47.1 49.4 4.0 4.9 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.8 4.6 0.0 49.8 51.1 3.9 4.8 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.2 2.6 0.1 51.1 52.6 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.3 3.8 0.2 52.4 52.7 4.0 5.2 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.1 0.6 0.0 50.9 52.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.3 4.6 0.2 52.7 52.9 4.6 6.0 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.5 2.7 0.2 53.0 52.8 2.1 3.3 4.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.3 2.6 -0.1 0.0 50.0 52.3 1.5 2.6 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.9 5.0 0.0 50.7 51.6 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------