***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 3.4 3.1 3.1 -1.4 20.6 27.8 3.8 4.5 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 3.1 2.5 2.7 -1.7 14.7 21.9 3.5 4.2 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 5.3 5.0 3.1 -1.5 17.7 24.5 5.8 6.5 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 -0.7 -1.2 0.5 -1.5 18.8 25.1 -0.3 0.6 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.3 2.0 1.1 -1.3 21.9 28.4 2.6 3.3 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 2.7 1.9 -0.8 -0.7 34.6 39.2 1.8 2.5 3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 3.3 2.9 2.7 -1.7 15.7 23.2 3.7 4.4 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -4.0 -4.1 -1.2 -1.0 27.5 33.5 -3.8 -2.9 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 3.3 3.0 1.2 -1.3 19.7 26.7 3.6 4.2 4.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.4 3.2 -0.4 -1.3 22.5 29.2 3.6 4.2 4.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.2 2.9 0.5 -1.2 21.8 28.7 3.4 4.0 4.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 1.8 1.7 -0.2 -1.0 27.8 33.9 2.0 2.7 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.8 2.8 -0.2 -0.8 31.3 37.6 2.9 3.5 4.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 3.9 3.5 0.8 -1.7 15.5 23.2 4.2 4.8 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 3.7 3.4 1.7 -1.4 18.5 24.9 4.0 4.6 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.7 3.6 0.1 -1.0 26.3 32.7 3.9 4.6 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 3.5 3.0 2.4 -1.8 12.8 20.7 3.9 4.5 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 1.4 1.2 -1.1 -1.3 23.3 30.0 1.6 2.1 2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 3.1 2.5 2.7 -1.7 14.5 21.7 3.5 4.2 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -1.3 -1.1 -2.6 -0.8 33.5 38.4 -1.1 -0.5 0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.1 2.8 2.5 -1.4 19.7 26.8 3.4 4.2 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 2.8 2.2 2.3 -1.9 11.6 19.4 3.2 3.8 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 2.7 2.2 2.5 -1.6 14.6 21.9 3.1 3.8 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 3.2 2.8 0.8 -1.5 18.4 25.3 3.5 4.1 4.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.3 3.0 2.1 -1.3 22.5 29.3 3.5 4.2 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.0 -0.3 -0.5 38.8 42.5 2.8 3.5 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.6 3.3 2.7 -1.3 22.7 29.9 3.9 4.7 5.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 1.9 1.6 0.8 -1.4 19.9 26.1 2.2 2.8 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 0.2 0.2 -1.7 -1.1 27.4 33.3 0.4 1.2 2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 3.5 3.1 2.9 -1.6 16.3 23.4 3.9 4.6 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------