***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9.5 5.4 5.1 -7.2 2.4 4.3 11.8 13.6 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 9.4 5.2 5.1 -7.1 1.9 4.3 11.5 13.2 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 9.6 5.6 5.2 -7.2 2.8 5.1 11.9 13.8 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 0.3 -4.3 1.8 -7.5 3.3 4.9 3.3 5.8 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 9.1 5.8 3.8 -6.9 4.8 6.5 11.8 13.9 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 7.8 7.1 3.7 -4.6 14.0 16.4 10.4 12.6 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 99 1 0 100 9.1 5.0 5.0 -7.0 2.0 4.2 11.3 13.0 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 97 3 0 100 -2.3 -4.0 2.8 -5.8 9.1 11.3 0.1 2.1 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 9.1 5.6 4.7 -7.0 4.2 6.2 11.7 13.8 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 98 2 0 100 8.8 6.2 3.2 -6.6 6.7 8.8 11.5 13.6 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 8.9 5.9 4.3 -6.8 5.6 7.6 11.6 13.8 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 8.0 5.8 3.6 -5.9 7.9 10.3 10.7 12.9 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 8.9 6.9 4.6 -5.8 8.6 11.4 11.5 13.7 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 99 1 0 100 9.8 6.3 4.3 -7.3 3.6 5.8 12.1 14.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 8.2 2.3 3.9 -7.9 1.6 3.3 11.0 13.3 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 99 1 0 100 9.2 6.6 4.0 -6.3 6.7 8.9 12.0 14.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 8.8 5.0 4.8 -6.9 1.9 4.1 10.7 12.3 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 97 3 0 100 8.7 6.3 2.6 -6.4 7.4 9.5 11.2 13.3 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 9.5 5.2 5.1 -7.2 2.0 4.5 11.6 13.4 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 3.5 2.4 1.8 -4.9 12.3 14.5 6.0 8.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 9.3 5.7 5.3 -7.1 3.7 5.7 11.9 13.9 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 99 1 0 100 9.6 5.5 5.0 -7.0 1.9 4.2 11.6 13.3 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 10.0 5.9 5.1 -7.3 2.2 4.8 12.1 13.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 9.5 6.4 4.4 -7.0 4.7 6.9 11.9 13.9 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 9.1 5.2 4.0 -7.1 3.1 4.8 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 97 3 0 100 8.2 7.8 4.3 -4.2 14.7 17.3 10.9 13.1 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 9.2 5.2 4.7 -6.9 2.9 4.7 11.6 13.5 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 8.3 3.7 3.0 -7.4 3.4 5.2 11.3 13.7 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 97 3 0 100 3.5 1.6 2.3 -6.0 8.7 10.9 6.1 8.3 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 99 1 0 100 9.2 4.9 5.1 -7.1 2.1 4.4 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------