***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.6 14.7 13.5 -0.2 47.7 47.5 13.3 15.0 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.9 14.9 13.3 -0.4 45.3 45.7 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.6 13.9 0.0 49.5 49.1 14.1 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.1 10.6 -0.3 46.5 47.3 5.8 7.5 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.8 12.3 0.2 52.0 51.3 13.9 15.6 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 12.7 14.7 10.1 0.1 50.8 50.1 13.0 14.6 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.6 14.6 13.2 -0.4 44.5 45.0 13.6 15.0 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.5 10.2 -0.1 48.4 48.5 2.1 3.6 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.6 13.1 0.2 52.1 51.4 13.7 15.4 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.6 11.5 0.1 51.1 50.7 13.8 15.5 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.7 12.4 0.2 51.9 51.2 13.8 15.5 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.6 11.2 -0.1 49.0 49.1 13.0 14.7 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.8 15.9 11.5 0.0 50.6 50.3 14.1 15.8 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.6 12.8 -0.2 47.8 47.9 14.2 15.8 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.6 14.4 12.0 -0.5 43.4 44.8 13.5 15.0 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 14.0 16.0 11.7 0.1 50.7 50.3 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 14.9 13.8 12.8 -0.6 42.8 43.5 13.0 14.3 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.1 10.8 -0.1 49.0 49.1 13.4 15.1 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.0 13.5 -0.3 46.7 46.9 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.5 7.8 -0.5 44.3 45.0 8.4 10.0 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.6 13.8 0.1 51.4 50.6 13.9 15.5 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.9 14.7 13.1 -0.5 43.5 44.3 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.6 13.8 -0.1 48.7 48.5 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.6 12.8 -0.1 49.5 49.3 14.0 15.6 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.0 12.2 -0.2 47.9 47.8 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.2 10.1 0.0 49.6 49.5 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.2 12.9 -0.2 47.1 46.8 13.9 15.4 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.8 14.8 11.3 -0.3 46.2 47.2 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 9.7 9.8 -0.3 46.9 47.3 8.3 10.0 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.7 14.9 13.4 -0.3 46.5 46.7 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------