***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 14.3 15.9 15.6 -0.1 48.7 48.9 14.6 16.0 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 16.6 15.7 15.3 -0.2 47.1 47.7 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 14.5 16.2 15.9 -0.1 49.0 49.0 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.6 9.4 13.6 0.0 50.3 49.6 7.9 9.4 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 15.2 16.9 14.3 0.0 50.3 49.9 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 14.4 16.6 12.6 0.5 55.6 53.9 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 14.3 15.7 15.3 -0.2 47.0 47.7 14.5 15.9 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.9 12.9 0.2 51.7 51.1 3.3 4.8 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.4 14.7 0.0 50.3 50.0 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.6 13.6 0.1 51.0 50.7 15.1 16.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 17.5 16.9 14.1 0.1 50.6 50.4 15.4 16.8 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.2 13.7 0.2 51.9 51.3 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.4 13.1 0.3 53.7 52.7 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.0 14.6 0.0 50.0 50.1 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 15.4 16.8 14.3 0.0 50.6 49.6 15.6 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.4 13.7 0.2 52.2 51.5 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 13.6 15.1 15.1 -0.3 46.5 47.1 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.0 13.3 0.1 51.5 51.3 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.1 15.7 15.6 -0.1 48.1 48.3 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.3 10.6 0.2 52.3 51.6 9.6 11.1 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 14.8 16.4 15.4 0.0 50.0 49.7 15.1 16.4 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 14.1 15.7 15.3 -0.2 47.3 47.7 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.3 16.0 15.8 0.0 49.6 49.4 14.6 16.1 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.0 14.6 0.0 50.1 50.2 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 14.9 16.5 14.2 0.0 49.9 49.6 15.2 16.5 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.9 12.9 0.5 55.5 53.6 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 14.8 16.3 14.9 -0.1 49.3 49.4 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 15.4 17.0 13.8 0.1 50.8 50.0 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.9 12.4 0.2 52.0 51.7 9.2 10.7 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 16.5 15.7 15.4 -0.2 47.5 48.0 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------