***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 13.9 13.6 12.1 -1.9 18.3 25.2 14.6 15.5 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 13.9 13.6 11.9 -2.0 16.6 24.0 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 14.3 14.2 12.4 -1.9 19.2 26.2 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 6.4 6.0 9.6 -2.0 19.1 26.0 7.1 8.2 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 14.6 14.4 10.8 -1.7 22.2 28.9 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 13.7 13.9 9.4 -1.0 32.8 37.7 13.9 15.0 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 13.8 13.5 11.9 -2.0 16.6 23.8 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 2.5 2.4 9.3 -1.5 25.8 32.2 2.9 3.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 14.4 14.2 11.4 -1.7 21.7 28.6 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 14.5 14.3 10.1 -1.6 24.1 30.8 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 14.5 14.3 10.9 -1.7 22.7 29.6 15.0 16.0 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 13.6 13.5 10.2 -1.5 24.7 31.2 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 14.6 14.6 10.2 -1.4 26.4 32.6 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 14.5 14.3 11.2 -1.9 19.7 27.2 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 14.1 13.6 10.8 -2.1 16.0 23.3 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 14.9 14.7 10.4 -1.6 24.2 30.8 15.3 16.4 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 13.2 12.9 11.7 -2.0 16.0 23.5 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 14.0 14.0 9.6 -1.6 24.7 31.2 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 14.0 13.7 12.1 -1.9 17.5 24.9 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 8.8 8.9 7.3 -1.4 28.2 33.7 9.2 10.3 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 14.4 14.3 12.2 -1.8 21.0 27.8 15.0 16.0 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 14.1 13.7 11.8 -2.0 16.5 24.2 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 14.4 14.2 12.3 -1.9 18.6 26.2 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 14.3 14.2 11.3 -1.8 21.5 28.6 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 14.3 14.0 10.8 -1.9 19.4 26.2 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 14.0 14.3 9.7 -1.0 32.6 36.8 14.3 15.4 16.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 14.2 13.9 11.5 -1.8 19.1 25.9 14.8 15.8 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 14.3 13.9 10.1 -1.9 19.2 26.3 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 8.7 8.8 8.9 -1.6 25.6 31.7 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 13.8 13.6 12.0 -2.0 17.2 24.4 14.6 15.4 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------