***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 6.7 10.4 15.0 120.9 69.9 63.5 2.4 5.2 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.4 8.7 11.1 109.4 66.0 56.4 2.2 4.8 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 13.5 14.3 15.3 125.4 71.3 64.1 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 12.8 14.5 22.9 147.2 77.0 72.5 4.5 7.4 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 14.0 14.2 18.7 120.0 69.4 65.0 4.5 8.1 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 12.2 15.0 24.2 149.4 78.0 73.4 3.2 6.2 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.5 7.9 10.7 105.6 64.7 55.7 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 20.8 21.8 21.8 125.2 70.0 65.1 7.5 12.7 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 11.5 11.3 17.4 118.6 68.8 64.0 3.5 6.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 9.6 12.8 19.4 109.5 64.9 60.2 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 15.3 16.3 20.0 128.8 71.8 66.6 4.3 8.2 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 14.2 16.3 21.4 140.9 75.6 70.6 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 14.7 16.5 23.0 138.0 75.0 70.7 3.8 7.4 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 10.4 12.1 17.0 103.6 62.8 56.3 4.6 8.4 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 16.6 24.2 24.2 193.5 84.9 79.8 2.7 6.2 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 12.3 13.5 21.4 137.7 74.9 70.4 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.7 9.1 92.4 59.9 51.2 3.2 5.7 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 8.1 9.9 19.4 105.3 63.2 58.0 3.9 6.8 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.8 10.9 12.0 111.8 66.7 57.5 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 8.7 13.8 25.2 124.6 69.4 64.4 3.7 7.2 12.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 11.5 12.0 17.2 125.7 71.3 66.1 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.8 9.6 90.7 58.9 50.0 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.7 10.2 13.3 113.2 67.1 58.8 3.0 5.8 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 10.7 13.6 17.3 111.0 65.7 59.1 5.0 8.7 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 10.3 10.4 18.3 121.0 69.9 65.3 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 11.5 14.0 24.2 155.5 79.1 76.0 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 6.1 8.9 15.8 117.7 68.9 63.0 2.5 4.9 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 11.6 14.5 23.1 163.1 79.6 74.8 2.4 5.1 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 12.8 16.9 20.7 110.0 64.9 59.6 5.6 10.6 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.4 10.7 12.3 115.8 68.2 59.1 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------