***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 12.5 14.5 18.2 140.6 75.5 67.8 3.2 6.3 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 11.8 13.1 15.4 134.3 73.8 64.9 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 15.1 16.4 17.0 130.8 72.9 65.9 3.7 7.4 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 16.9 17.9 18.5 123.5 70.6 63.3 5.0 9.4 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 12.4 13.7 19.2 129.8 72.6 65.0 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 15.2 16.3 20.1 129.1 72.2 61.8 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 11.5 13.2 15.9 141.2 75.6 67.0 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 21.6 23.9 20.6 133.3 73.5 65.7 6.1 11.5 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 12.4 13.1 18.5 123.0 70.5 62.7 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 16.0 17.8 20.7 131.5 73.0 65.4 3.9 8.0 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 14.8 16.0 19.6 128.1 72.0 63.5 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 15.0 15.8 18.6 126.7 71.5 62.6 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 17.7 19.7 21.5 134.8 74.1 63.7 5.3 9.5 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 20.6 20.5 20.0 122.5 70.3 62.6 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 18.7 19.4 17.1 123.6 70.7 62.5 3.5 8.5 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 14.3 15.8 19.6 128.5 72.2 63.3 3.6 7.4 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 12.8 15.5 15.7 146.9 77.0 67.9 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 12.4 13.3 20.9 126.0 70.9 63.7 3.4 6.7 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 13.1 14.4 15.4 129.0 72.4 64.2 3.0 6.3 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 16.6 20.3 28.0 152.7 79.4 71.9 5.3 9.1 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 13.2 14.3 17.6 124.2 70.9 63.9 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 12.3 14.2 15.4 138.6 74.9 65.8 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 14.2 15.4 16.3 127.2 71.9 64.8 4.6 8.2 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.1 15.6 18.5 119.1 69.1 62.3 3.7 7.8 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 16.2 18.6 22.0 150.2 77.9 70.7 4.7 8.2 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 14.3 17.5 21.3 142.3 76.4 65.6 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 15.4 18.1 20.3 149.4 77.7 70.1 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 9.4 15.3 17.8 123.6 70.7 62.8 3.5 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 21.1 23.6 23.4 133.0 73.6 66.4 5.7 10.9 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 12.1 13.4 15.8 133.2 73.6 65.2 3.2 6.3 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------