***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 7.2 9.4 14.6 111.7 66.7 59.1 3.2 5.7 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.1 9.1 12.7 112.5 67.2 56.0 3.0 5.5 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.3 9.2 13.8 108.9 65.5 56.8 2.8 5.4 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.8 13.6 17.8 121.6 70.1 59.5 4.8 8.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.4 12.3 17.5 126.4 71.5 60.0 3.8 6.7 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.7 8.6 19.1 116.9 68.0 57.5 3.1 5.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.0 7.7 12.7 110.2 66.4 55.0 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.0 17.5 18.8 124.3 70.8 59.9 5.5 9.6 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.4 9.3 17.8 123.1 70.4 59.3 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 7.5 10.8 19.5 124.4 70.8 60.1 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.2 9.0 17.4 130.1 72.7 60.7 3.2 5.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.4 9.8 17.1 124.4 70.8 59.5 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.5 9.2 19.5 123.6 70.6 59.3 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.4 17.4 102.8 62.8 54.2 4.2 6.8 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.8 6.8 17.5 125.3 71.5 59.2 2.4 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.6 9.6 18.5 129.1 72.3 60.3 3.2 5.4 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.0 7.1 12.1 105.7 64.8 53.1 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 5.8 8.3 20.3 120.8 69.4 59.3 2.7 4.7 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.0 8.5 12.7 108.7 65.7 55.1 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.7 10.9 22.8 125.4 71.1 60.4 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.3 9.0 15.9 119.6 69.3 59.8 2.5 4.9 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.8 12.8 104.4 64.2 52.6 3.3 5.4 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.6 7.5 13.1 102.9 63.5 54.5 3.1 5.2 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.1 8.7 17.0 109.5 65.3 55.8 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.5 11.4 17.6 118.6 69.0 61.4 4.2 7.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.6 8.1 16.8 110.3 66.0 56.2 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.6 9.0 16.3 115.7 68.1 60.0 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.6 8.4 18.2 127.7 72.0 59.6 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 10.2 13.9 20.8 120.3 69.3 59.3 4.9 8.4 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.5 7.1 13.0 112.0 66.9 56.8 2.4 4.3 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------