***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 52.6 50.2 60.8 115.0 67.1 62.1 28.5 38.1 49.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 49.3 45.8 51.5 113.3 66.0 59.5 22.3 33.0 45.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 59.3 55.7 58.5 113.2 66.1 61.1 31.8 43.0 55.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 67.1 66.7 72.5 116.8 68.2 64.1 47.5 56.3 65.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 59.0 56.7 67.9 111.8 65.3 60.9 40.9 48.9 57.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 56.0 57.0 78.0 118.0 70.4 65.2 33.2 42.7 53.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 45.5 43.1 51.9 113.9 66.3 59.8 21.3 31.0 42.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 76.4 86.4 75.0 114.3 67.7 62.5 58.6 71.4 84.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 44.9 48.2 66.6 108.7 63.1 58.7 34.3 41.7 49.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 55.1 59.6 73.9 109.0 63.6 59.1 42.6 51.6 61.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 59.8 58.9 69.2 115.0 67.6 62.8 37.4 47.2 57.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 58.9 59.3 69.1 116.8 69.1 64.0 35.6 45.9 56.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 62.1 62.7 78.0 118.3 70.2 65.7 40.0 49.3 59.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 58.6 59.6 69.5 102.4 58.1 54.5 42.7 53.6 65.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 60.4 63.3 71.4 127.5 73.4 68.0 34.3 44.8 56.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 57.3 56.7 72.5 117.6 69.3 64.9 33.5 43.3 54.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 37.1 44.2 49.9 113.4 66.0 59.3 23.0 32.7 44.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 44.8 47.7 76.1 106.9 61.8 57.6 33.7 41.6 50.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 56.5 51.5 52.2 110.8 64.5 58.8 28.7 39.8 52.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 58.1 60.3 93.2 121.1 72.3 66.3 35.7 45.1 55.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 44.4 49.8 63.5 112.0 65.3 61.0 32.4 40.9 50.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 41.4 46.0 50.8 109.0 63.4 57.0 26.4 36.5 48.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 54.4 48.5 55.0 108.4 62.9 58.3 28.9 39.3 50.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 51.2 53.3 66.9 104.9 60.2 56.1 36.8 46.7 57.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 54.3 54.2 72.5 118.0 68.9 64.7 36.6 44.3 52.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 54.5 56.3 75.2 121.3 72.0 66.9 32.1 41.4 51.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 54.2 53.4 66.5 117.4 68.5 63.3 31.5 41.1 51.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 54.1 55.0 72.0 121.1 70.5 65.8 34.5 42.9 51.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 70.6 77.6 80.8 110.6 64.8 60.0 53.0 65.6 78.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 48.8 44.5 53.3 113.5 66.1 60.1 21.5 31.9 44.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------