***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 5.4 8.6 7.2 5.1 95.7 94.6 1.3 2.8 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 4.9 7.8 7.0 5.0 95.8 94.8 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 7.3 10.0 7.3 4.8 94.9 94.1 3.4 4.8 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 1.8 3.8 4.1 4.0 89.8 88.0 -2.9 -1.1 0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 4.4 6.5 5.3 4.5 92.4 91.4 0.4 1.8 3.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 3.4 4.9 2.3 4.3 89.3 88.1 -0.4 1.0 2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 5.1 8.1 6.9 5.0 95.7 94.4 1.3 2.6 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -1.2 1.4 2.7 4.8 91.8 91.3 -6.3 -4.5 -2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 5.3 7.8 5.3 4.4 93.8 92.9 1.4 2.8 4.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 5.0 6.7 3.6 4.6 91.7 91.1 1.6 2.8 4.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 4.9 6.7 4.6 4.3 92.0 91.2 1.4 2.6 3.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 3.8 5.6 3.7 4.5 91.1 90.4 0.0 1.4 2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 4.5 5.7 3.5 4.0 87.9 86.9 0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 5.4 7.1 5.1 4.4 92.3 91.7 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 5.0 6.9 5.1 3.7 91.8 89.5 1.5 2.8 4.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 5.5 7.1 3.9 4.1 89.6 88.5 1.7 3.1 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 5.0 7.7 6.7 5.0 95.9 94.8 1.5 2.8 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 2.9 4.3 3.2 4.7 91.0 90.5 -0.2 0.9 2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 5.0 7.9 6.9 4.9 95.7 94.9 1.3 2.6 3.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 0.6 2.6 1.8 5.2 91.3 91.0 -3.5 -2.0 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 4.9 7.3 6.5 4.4 93.7 92.7 1.2 2.6 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 4.4 7.0 6.8 4.8 95.5 94.8 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 4.4 7.0 6.6 4.7 95.5 94.9 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 4.6 6.4 5.1 4.5 92.5 91.8 1.4 2.6 3.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 4.9 7.4 6.5 5.0 94.1 93.0 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 4.3 5.8 3.2 4.4 90.0 89.2 0.9 2.1 3.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 5.6 9.0 6.9 5.1 95.1 93.9 1.0 2.7 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 3.6 5.0 4.4 3.8 88.6 86.8 0.0 1.3 2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 2.6 4.8 2.3 5.0 91.3 90.9 -1.9 -0.2 1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 5.6 8.8 7.2 5.0 95.9 94.9 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------