***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 5.5 5.6 5.4 1.5 72.0 68.0 2.9 4.0 5.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 5.2 5.3 5.1 1.5 72.4 68.5 2.9 3.9 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 7.7 7.9 5.4 1.5 72.3 68.6 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 45 55 100 1.5 1.7 2.5 1.3 69.3 66.0 -1.0 0.3 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 4.3 4.5 3.3 1.4 70.5 67.3 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 3.4 3.7 0.8 1.6 71.4 68.9 1.2 2.3 3.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 5.3 5.3 5.0 1.5 71.6 67.9 3.1 4.1 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 -1.3 -1.2 0.9 1.9 73.4 70.9 -4.4 -3.1 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 5.4 5.6 3.5 1.6 73.9 70.0 2.8 4.0 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 5.6 5.7 1.8 1.8 74.0 71.0 2.9 4.1 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 5.1 5.4 2.6 1.6 72.0 68.8 2.6 3.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 3.7 3.7 1.7 1.6 70.8 68.3 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 4.5 4.7 1.7 1.6 71.8 68.9 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 5.6 5.9 3.4 1.8 74.9 71.6 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 5.3 5.6 3.8 1.3 71.1 67.3 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 5.6 5.8 2.1 1.5 70.7 67.6 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 5.4 5.4 4.9 1.5 71.9 68.2 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 3.1 3.3 1.3 2.0 75.0 72.3 0.7 1.8 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 5.3 5.4 5.1 1.5 73.2 69.2 2.9 3.9 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 0.9 1.2 -0.4 2.2 76.6 74.0 -2.0 -0.8 0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.4 4.7 1.4 71.9 68.1 2.6 3.8 4.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 4.6 4.8 4.9 1.5 73.2 69.5 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 4.8 5.1 5.0 1.6 74.9 70.7 2.5 3.5 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 5.2 5.4 3.3 1.8 74.5 71.3 2.7 3.7 4.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 5.5 5.5 4.4 1.5 70.9 67.2 2.9 4.1 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 4.5 4.6 1.2 1.6 71.2 68.7 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 6.1 6.1 4.9 1.5 71.0 67.3 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 3.5 3.7 2.8 1.3 68.6 65.5 1.4 2.5 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 2.8 3.2 0.7 2.3 77.9 75.1 -0.4 0.9 2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 5.7 5.9 5.3 1.5 72.7 68.8 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------