***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 7.3 7.0 7.1 0.9 64.6 61.0 4.7 5.9 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 6.7 6.5 6.9 0.9 65.7 62.2 4.2 5.4 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 8.7 8.4 7.1 0.8 65.4 62.5 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 2.9 2.5 4.4 0.7 63.1 60.3 0.4 1.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.8 4.6 0.8 63.7 60.8 3.6 4.8 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.6 2.3 0.5 58.5 57.1 3.0 4.1 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 7.0 6.7 7.0 0.9 65.3 61.7 4.5 5.6 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.4 -0.9 2.4 0.8 62.8 60.7 -3.1 -1.8 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 6.6 6.4 4.9 0.8 64.4 61.5 4.3 5.4 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.4 3.3 0.8 63.8 61.2 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.7 6.1 3.8 0.7 63.1 60.4 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.8 3.0 0.7 62.3 59.9 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.6 2.6 0.6 59.8 57.6 3.8 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 6.9 6.7 4.9 0.9 65.2 62.4 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.8 5.4 0.7 62.7 59.9 5.2 6.1 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.6 3.3 0.6 61.5 59.1 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 6.9 6.7 6.8 0.9 64.8 61.3 4.7 5.7 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 4.7 4.5 2.7 0.9 64.9 62.2 2.7 3.6 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 6.8 6.6 6.9 0.9 66.0 62.7 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 2.2 1.9 0.6 0.9 64.0 61.9 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 7.0 6.7 6.3 0.8 64.5 61.6 4.4 5.7 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.0 6.6 0.9 65.6 62.1 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.3 6.6 0.9 65.8 62.7 4.1 5.2 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 6.3 6.1 4.6 0.9 65.2 62.4 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 7.0 6.6 5.7 0.8 63.3 60.1 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.2 5.5 2.4 0.7 61.8 58.9 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 7.7 7.3 6.6 0.9 64.0 60.4 4.6 6.1 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.5 4.6 0.7 62.6 59.9 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 3.4 3.2 2.1 1.0 65.2 62.6 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 7.1 6.9 7.0 0.9 65.6 62.2 4.6 5.8 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------